Pro-hunting MPs hopeful of victory – if the SNP stay away

A very organised unofficial whipping operation is underway for Wednesday’s free vote on hunting (first revealed by Melissa Kite in the Spectator last week). I understand that the Tories who are in favour of changing legislation so that hounds can be used to flush out foxes think they will win the vote if the SNP decide to take the unusual step of voting on the issue, which does not affect Scotland.

The pro-hunting camp believe they have around 285 MPs – mostly not exclusively Tory – on their side, and there are around 260 MPs across the Commons who will vote against the change. The most prominent among them is Tracey Crouch, who has been unusually vociferous in her opposition, given she is a minister. Normally ministers, who have as much freedom on conscience issues as any other MP, tend to stay reasonably quiet about their decision, choosing not to criticise the government while voting against the position it is encouraging.

There are also half a dozen MPs who have told colleagues in Parliament one thing about where they stand on hunting, but have completely contradicted this in statements to their constituents, which makes it rather difficult to work out what they are going to do, though there will likely be a number of abstentions from MPs who don’t want to upset anyone, or who genuinely can’t make up their mind.

If the SNP do decide to vote on the legislation, then the pro-hunt camp risk losing the vote. The question then is whether the Tories pull the vote from Wednesday’s business to avoid a defeat which will demoralise rural Tory voters further, or go ahead with it knowing that they will lose in order to make a point about the Scottish Nationalists getting involved in affairs the Conservatives think they shouldn’t be involved in. That is, of course, assuming that the SNP tell anyone else what they are going to do on Wednesday. Given how disciplined the party is currently, it wouldn’t be a surprise if all 56 MPs managed to keep their whipping arrangements entirely quiet right up until the division bell rings.