Project Fear

The negotiations may be ongoing, but David Cameron has given up waiting for the outcome of his talks with the European Union. The Prime Minister has made up his mind: he wants Britain to vote to stay in the EU — and the campaigning has already begun. His closest allies have been assigned to the task; Downing Street is already in election mode and a strategy is being devised.

As with the Scottish referendum campaign, the In campaign will consist of vivid warnings about the dangers of voting to leave. In Scotland it was dubbed Project Fear, and that’s what Cameron is planning again. In theory, the Prime Minister has until the end of next year to call the referendum vote. In practice, he wants it over with. The polls suggest that it’s his to lose, the ‘In’ side is comfortably ahead at the moment — and the rule of thumb in referendums is that the change proposition, ‘Out’ in this case, needs to be ahead by double digits if the campaign is to win. But In’s advantage could evaporate with a new refugee crisis or a new eurozone crisis or both. Time, Cameron has decided, is now his enemy. He’d like to agree a deal, any deal, with the EU next month and hold the referendum in June — although this timetable may well slip, delaying the vote until September. The unofficial deadline has transformed government: the Prime Minister himself now never misses an opportunity to say that Britain should stay inside a reformed EU.

The campaign, though, is a little complicated for the PM. How can a self-described ‘Eurosceptic’ lead the effort to stay in the EU? How can the Prime Minister of a country whose recent success owes much to staying out of the single currency and the Schengen agreement argue that Britain must at all costs remain in the club that came up with these disastrous ideas? Many countries in Europe, whose leaders grew up in dictator-ship, cling to the EU project as the guarantor of their democracy.