And so it begins. Welcome to the first episode of the latest season of Putin’s Theatre of Fugazi – the longest-running drama in global geopolitics. The first takeaway from yesterday’s nearly two-hour phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin seems, at first glance, a positive one. Putin conceded, in principle, strong support for a ceasefire. And in practice, he conceded its first element: a moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure, issuing orders immediately after the phone call to halt imminent strikes.
Fundamentally, though, Putin is merely cosplaying a willing participant in the peace process. In truth, today’s Trump-Putin phone call merely raised the curtain on what promises to be a long and masterful display of delaying tactics.
Trump sees talks as a path towards peace. Putin sees talks as a path towards victory
Was the moratorium on hitting energy infrastructure the first step on the road towards peace? In one sense, yes. Russia has spent years knocking seven bells out of Ukraine’s electricity sub-stations, power plants, gas pipelines and transformer stations, wrecking the country’s industry, periodically paralysing its rail network and plunging millions of civilians into cold and darkness. Ukraine, for its part, has scored some of the few palpable counterstrikes of the war by developing long-range drones capable of blowing up oil refineries, gasoline storage units and oil terminals deep inside the Russian heartland. A partial ceasefire in the air will spare Ukraine more damage to its critical infrastructure and allow the country to start rebuilding its shattered power grid.
But it’s Russia that scores the biggest win. As early as February 2024, Russia imposed a six-month ban on the export of refined petroleum products because of repeated Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. Over recent days alone, Ukrainian strikes have sent giant fireballs billowing into the sky over Astrakhan, Krasnodar, Samara and the Moscow oil refinery, which supplies 50 per cent of the capital’s gasoline. Yes, it was the Ukrainians who first suggested a limited ceasefire in the skies. But a ceasefire that limits Kyiv from continuing one of its few strategically winning tactics while allowing Russia free reign to strike non-energy targets in Ukraine is cold comfort.
Here, Putin’s cold cunning is visible. By lifting the phrase ’30 day ceasefire’ from the original proposal and transplanting it into a proposition that actually helps the Kremlin but hinders Kyiv, Putin allowed Trump to be able to claim a victory while in reality banking one for the Kremlin.
‘We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure,’ Trump wrote on social media. ‘With an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine.’ Even as Trump wrote those words Iranian-made Russian drones rained down in raids on central Kyiv and Sumy – just not on energy infrastructure.
Trump claimed that he had had a ‘very good and productive’ conversation with Putin. In reality, Putin played Trump like a fiddle. The two men agreed to form a contact group that would meet very soon to discuss detailed proposals at a Middle Eastern location. Another home run for Putin. He gets to bury negotiations in committee for months, while adhering to every appearance of constructive engagement.
The first item on the contact group’s agenda will be, according to a White House statement, negotiations on the ‘implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace’. Also very good for Putin. Ukraine has no remaining navy – but has done a remarkable job of sending nearly half the capital ships in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, including its flagship, the heavy cruiser Moskva, to the bottom with missiles. Russia also exports a significant amount of its oil through the Black Sea port of Novorossisk. A ceasefire at sea suits Moscow just fine, since it has everything to gain and nothing to lose.
Thorny issues remain, and the Kremlin readout made no bones about the fact that Putin put his hardline demands on the table. The Kremlin demanded ‘the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence to Kyiv’ during any full ceasefire period – plus a halt to Ukraine’s mobilisation of new recruits. Putin also repeated his demand for a commitment to keeping Kyiv out of Nato, the ‘demilitarisation’ of Ukraine in the form of restrictions on its armed forces and and a recognition of Russia’s control over the five regions that Moscow annexed since 2014.
These are hard conditions for Trump to swallow. But here again Putin’s strategic nous came into play. The Kremlin indicated that it was in strong agreement that Iran should never be allowed the wherewithal to strike Israel. Possible joint projects to exploit the resources of the Arctic have been discussed – as well as as-yet undefined joint business opportunities for US companies in Russia. By pulling back the focus to encompass a global picture, impresario Putin sought to cast Ukraine as a mere detail in a wide panoply of potential geopolitical collaboration.
Trump sees talks as a path towards peace. Putin sees talks as a path towards victory. Just as his invasion was diplomacy by other means, so his peace overtures are war by other means.
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