Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

Putin’s referendum rigging is a sign of weakness

Photo by ALEXEY NIKOLSKY/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

Putin has his result. After a week of postal, online and in-person voting, his controversial package of constitutional amendments that mean he could stay in office until 2036 has been passed by a hefty margin of 78 per cent voted in favour and 21 per cent against, with a turnout of just under two-thirds of the electorate. That Putin got the endorsement he wanted is, in fairness, not the biggest surprise of the year.

The irony is, though, that however rigged they may be, Russian elections, referenda and plebiscites do matter.

The Kremlin will ultimately get or at least claim the result it wants. The real question is how much effort it has to put into getting it. How much propaganda needs to be pumped out? How many dissenting voices silenced? How much money spent on sweeteners? And then, how much and how blatant the fraud?

What was originally, in pre-pandemic days, meant to be a triumph – a virtual coronation through the ballot box – turned out to be a hard slog. There was a massive campaign to persuade Russians that their futures and their nation’s sovereignty depended on this. From billboards along the street to pull-out supplements in popular newspapers, Russians were bombarded with exhortations to vote yes.

It is not that Putin necessarily wants to rule until he is 84

The Communist party, whose leaders have embraced their role as the fake opposition, were duly allowed to criticise the amendments so long as they stuck to a few public fulminations and no serious campaigning.

As for the so-called ‘non-systemic opposition’, it was divided and uncertain how to respond. But still the Kremlin did, if not crack the whip, at least carry it openly as a reminder. A defamation case was opened against opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the small protests that were staged often led to arrests.

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