Jonbon is the odds-on favourite for the big race on day two of the Festival, the BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (4 p.m.). He is the most likely winner but there is little doubt that this Cotswolds venue is not his favourite racetrack and so I am happy to take him on.
Eight runners are due to line up and so that makes each-way betting is attractive. I expect the outsider of the field, Libberty Hunter, to outrun his odds but I would be surprised if he is good enough to win this Grade 1 contest on ground that is faster than ideal for this soft-ground performer.
I would rather concentrate on the form of Solness and MARINE NATIONALE, first and second in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Dublin Chase at Leopardstown. The front-running Solness came out on top by two lengths on that occasion and could well confirm the form this afternoon.
However, Marine Nationale loves Cheltenham having won here at the 2023 Festival and it looks as if he his trainer/owner Barry Connell had been prepping him for this race all season. On balance, take him to gain revenge on Solness so back Marine Nationale 1 point each way at 5-1 with most bookies, all paying three places i.e. you end up quits on the bet if the horse is second or third.
If the bookmakers are right, the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Hurdle (1.20 p.m.) looks likely to be a straight Irish-trained v English-trained battle between Final Demand and The New Lion. Both horses, the former trained by Willie Mullins, the latter by Dan Skelton, have strong form.
However, I have already put up Sixmilebridge each way at 16-1 for the Fergal O’Brien yard. This six-year-old gelding is now looking for compensation having been disqualified for breaching medication rules when winning the Grade 2 Ais Novices’ Hurdle at this course on Trials’ Day in January.
Sixmilebridge was 16-1 when I tipped him but you can get 22-1 this morning if you hunt around – too big in my view in relation to his chances. The 16-1, four places, with SkyBet looks particularly appealing for each-way thieves like myself.
Willie Mullins exciting young chaser Ballyburn is the odds-on favourite for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2 p.m.) and I am not going to take him on with anything in a seven-runner race in which there are just two places for each-way punters.
The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (2.40 p.m.) is an impossible puzzle for anyone to solve with 26 runners. However, I am happy to put up Harry Fry’s BEAT THE BAT. Fry remains one of my favourite trainers and this seven-year-old gelding has been crying out for a step up in trip to this distance of 2 miles 5 furlongs.
I preferred the 25-1 odds on offer two days ago as he has now been heavily punted. But, on balance, Beat The Bat is still a bet so back him 1 point each way at 10-1 with bet365, paying six places. Impose Toi is well handicapped but, as usual for a J.P. McManus-owned horse, he has been well supported and, at 7-1 or less, he is not for me.
I seem to be one of the few Festival goers who still enjoys the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (3.20 p.m). I will, without much confidence, have to stick with my ante-post selection Latenightpass despite the face he would prefer softer ground.
However, against my better judgement, I am going to go in double handed with Nicky Henderson’s MISTER COFFEY even though, as usual, this ten-year-old gelding may well find a way not to win. This horse has been called a lot of names, none of them good ones, by my friend George over the years for his propensity to throw away a winning chance.
However, Henderson suggested earlier this week that his horse was so well and showing such speed on the gallops that he could run in the King’s Stand Stakes. You have to know your racing for that joke because that is the name of a former five-furlong sprint at Royal Ascot, whereas today’s contest is over three miles further. Back Mister Coffey each way at 15-2 Willliam Hill, paying five places, and hope the horse finally has the last laugh over his detractors.
The Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap (4.40 p.m.) is not much easier to solve that the Coral Cup but I am happy to have a bet on Lucinda Russell’s TAPRAIN LAW. If the ground was soft – which it is not – I would fancy him very strongly because he will definitely be suited by a fast-run, big-field handicap.
His trainer has always liked this horse and his third at Musselburgh last time out suggested he is returning to his best. Back him 1 point each way at 14-1 with bet365 or Paddy Power, both paying five places. There are any number of dangers and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing Jazzy Matty but, once again, at 7-1 or less, he is not for me.
The Weatherbys Champion Bumper (5.20 p.m.) is never a race for me to part with my hard-earned but good luck if you know more than me about which horse will win.
Day one ended up as nicely profitable for Penworthy followers, with an 8-1 winner, and three placed horses at 33-1. 12-1 and 8-1 from seven selections. Whistle Stop Tour was the day’s (costly for me) disappointment, but his race was over after two fences having been badly hampered by a faller at the first fence and then, quite understandably, being over-cautious at the second. His jockey, Derek Fox, looked after Whistle Stop Tour at the back of the field before pulling him up. Mark my words: their day in the limelight will come in good time.
Anyway, with the two ante-post bets and the four new ones from today, that’s six horses running today to given this column’s loyal followers a financial interest in the seven races on offer. I will be back again tomorrow morning for some tips on day three.
Yesterday: + 18.6 points
1 point each way William Munny at 8-1 for the Supreme Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 2nd. + 0.6 points.
1 point each way July Flower at 11-1 for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Jetara at 33-1 for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Whistle Stop Tour at 14-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Liam Swagger at 33-1 for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 3rd. + 6.6 points.
2 points win Haiti Couleurs at 8-1 for the National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Chase. 1st. + 16 points.
1 point each way Transmission at 12-1 for the National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 5th. + 1.4 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Sixmilebridge at 16-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Beat The Bat at 10-1 in the Coral Cup, paying 1/5thodds, 6 places.
1 point each way Latenightpass at 16-1 for the Cross Country Chase, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Cross Country Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Marine Nationale at 5-1 for the Champion Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Taprain Law at 14-1 for the Grand Annual, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places
1 point each way Walking On Air at 14-1 NRNB for the Kim Muir Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 16-1 for Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Ahoy Senor at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Path d’Oroux at 25-1 NRNB for the Jack Richards Novices’ Chase, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Path d’Oroux at 16-1 NRNB for the TrustATrader Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Galileo Dame at 16-1 NRNB for the Triumph Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Wendigo at 14-1 NRNB for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Our Champ at 66-1 for the County Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Kandoo Kid at 33-1 for the Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 19.86 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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