Reasons to disregard the “parallels” with 1992

There’s a lot of talk in Westminster at the moment about the parallels between now and 1992. Those who think that Brown can win the next election argue that 1992 shows how a governing party can win in a downturn and from behind. But looking at the polling from 1992, which admittedly got the final result rather wrong, shows a slightly different story.

Two of the last three polls before Major named the date of the election had things dead even and the other had Labour ahead by only a single point. The Tories are in a far better position now than Labour was then. If you think that Brown might go in March — the date that I hear bandied around most frequently – then we are four months away from an election. At that point in the 1992 cycle, two polls had Labour ahead by two and one had the government ahead by one.