Any insurgent political party needs a breakthrough moment. For the SNP, it was Winnie Ewing’s victory in the 1967 Hamilton by-election. For the SDP, it was Glasgow Hillhead in 1982. For Ukip, their success in the 2004 European Parliament elections was the moment the mainstream parties sat up and took notice. For Reform UK, such a moment should have occurred in the small hours of this morning. Except it didn’t.
In truth, many voters remain unaware of Reform
The Blackpool South by-election was seemingly tailor-made for Richard Tice’s party. The town is classic Red Wall territory. The previous incumbent, Conservative Scott Benton, had resigned in disgrace, and you’d think Keir Starmer’s brand of north-London centrism would have little appeal with the locals. This isn’t just my assessment. When I spoke to Ben Habib, Reform’s co-deputy leader, on Times Radio in March, he said the party shouldn’t be judged on how it fared in the local elections, but by the Blackpool South by-election instead. Judgement day has arrived and the verdict isn’t kind.
At the very least Reform should have come a strong second. Some within the party even harboured hopes of victory. Instead, they limped home in third place. Their candidate, Mark Butcher, totalled little more than 3,000 votes, and a share of just 16.9 per cent. Crucially, Reform finished behind the party they claim to be causing so much discomfort: Rishi Sunak’s desperately unpopular Tories. For all the coverage about Reform’s steadily rising national poll rating, perhaps Blackpool has shown that the mid-to-high teens is their electoral ceiling?
In truth, many voters remain unaware of Reform. The party has only existed in its current guise since 2020, and its leader, Richard Tice, has a level of name recognition that makes Ed Davey’s look impressive. Without the presence of high-profile big beasts, such as the SDP’s gang of four, or George Galloway for Respect or the Workers party, insurgent parties routinely struggle to make a breakthrough at Westminster. If only there was a big beast waiting in the wings for Reform. Except there is.
A certain Nigel Farage is the party’s honorary president. Perhaps the most consequential figure in British politics since Thatcher, he has twice led parties of the populist right to significant electoral success: first with Ukip, then the Brexit party, Reform’s forerunner. The party’s activists routinely ask each other ‘when’s Nigel coming back?’, and you get the sense that Farage himself is loving keeping both his allies and enemies guessing. Speaking in February, he said ‘everyone speculates will I come back as leader? I might do it. I might now. I don’t know.’
Farage himself has many options. There are rumours Donald Trump is considering appointing him as US ambassador to the UK if he wins back the White House in November. He’s also making big money through his various media appearances: from being GB News’ star presenter to the £1.5 million he reportedly received for appearing on I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here! Does Farage even see Reform UK as the best vehicle for his remaining political ambitions? Several leading Conservatives have said Farage would be welcome to return to the party he left in 1992, and he recently told Radio 4’s The World at One: ‘if you ask Tory party members right now they’d vote for me to be leader and not Rishi Sunak.’ He’s almost certainly correct.
If he runs for Reform at the general election, and exacerbates the scale of the Conservative defeat in the process, it will be harder for him to be accepted into the Tory ranks down the line. Increasingly, Nigel Farage is presented with a stark personal choice: make mischief once more as the ringleader of Reform, or play the long-game and attempt to capture the Conservative party in the same way his friend in Mar-a-Lago has captured the GOP. The fact we haven’t had a clear indication yet from Farage himself suggests he is yet to make up his mind.
All of this provides little comfort for Richard Tice. Reform may have succeeded in persuading Lee Anderson to defect from the Tories and become the party’s first representative at Westminster, but it’s been notable how little coverage the Ashfield MP has attracted ever since. From Ben Habib to David Bull, Reform has some effective media performers in its ranks, but none with the public profile or political clout of Farage. As Blackpool South has shown, Reform UK without him is a busted flush. If the party is to become a significant force in British politics, it needs its cigar-chomping, beer-swilling frontman. Not for the first time, Westminster is waiting for what Nigel Farage will do next.
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