As if Brits haven’t had enough elections and leadership competitions lately, north of the border political parties are gearing up for the 2026 Scottish parliament poll. While the embattled SNP has had a rocky few months, now Scottish Labour is under fire thanks to Sir Keir Starmer’s unpopular policies. But there is one party that only seems to be picking up support: Reform UK.
New Survation polling for Quantum Communications reveals support for the Nigel Farage-led party in Scotland has surged again. Reform is predicted to pick up 17 per cent of the constituency vote share and 16 per cent on the regional list – leaving the group with 14 MSPs in Holyrood next year from a standing start. And despite it being widely assumed that Reform would only see victory in the list vote, Glasgow University public policy professor Nicola McEwen says of the results: ‘The poll suggests Reform UK could be a real contender for constituency seats in those regions where it has most support, especially Central Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the West of Scotland.’ Talk about overnight success, eh?
While support for the Nats has waned since the 2021 elections, the polling suggests the SNP could elect 55 MSPs next year, taking 34 per cent of the constituency vote share and 29 per cent of the regional vote. Things don’t look good for Scottish Labour however, with Anas Sarwar’s party predicted to win just 19 seats – three less than the group has currently – echoing the results of Norstat polling for the Sunday Times last month. And the Scottish Tories are also facing a tough campaign with the survey predicting Russell Findlay’s boys in blue will only hold onto 17 seats – almost halving the size of their Holyrood group. Oh dear…
It’s set to be an exciting election for Scotland’s smaller parties, as the Scottish Greens are predicted to pick up two seats while the Liberal Democrats could gain nine. With the late Alex Salmond’s Alba party set to hold onto just one MSP seat next year, the poll suggests Holyrood will see a pro-independence majority elected into the Scottish parliament in 2026 – in a glimmer of rare good news for the Nats.
It seems the feuding between Farage and former Reform MP Rupert Lowe hasn’t dented support for the anti-establishment group north of the border. Will Reform UK’s support continue to soar? Stay tuned…
Comments