Party conference begins next week when Reform UK kick off their two-day jamboree in Birmingham. Spirits within Nigel Farage’s party are high after a successful summer in which they dominated the recess period with a well-executed ‘flood the zone’ media strategy. A steady drumbeat of weekly announcements culminated on Tuesday when Reform’s long-awaited deportation strategy was unveiled. Now, the party has received a further boost with a new poll for the i paper which gives them their highest polling to date: Reform 35, Labour 20, Conservatives 17 per cent.
This is the first time Reform has hit 35 points. Polling averages are what matters most but today’s survey is a statement nonetheless. Party strategists for months have hoped that they can hit the magic 40 mark – a figure which would virtually guarantee a comfortable working majority at any general election. Hitting that milestone looked ambitious four months ago; now it appears to be a real possibility. Particularly gratifying for both Farage and former chairman Zia Yusuf is the public’s reaction to their deportation plan. Some 39 per cent of all voters say it is ‘likely’ that Reform can carry out its strategy to deport 600,000 people if elected, compared to 29 per cent against.
Figures in both Labour and the Conservatives hope that ‘the summer of Farage’ will draw to an end once parliament returns from recess on Monday. But Reform conference offers the Clacton MP the chance to grab the spotlight once more. Part of the party’s appeal lies in its ability to do things differently and deviate from standard political norms. The Birmingham bonanza offers the chance for Reform to showcase fresh faces – more women, younger members and regional voices too. A successful conference could give the party a further poll bump and offer a striking contrast with the downbeat Labour and Tory gatherings in Liverpool and Manchester respectively.
Farage is a military history buff who used to tour the battlefields of the First World War. Like any shrewd strategist, he has identified the best terrain on which to fight Reform’s campaigns: not in parliament but in the online space instead. This summer he has waged war in the media, both traditional and social, successfully harnessing the energy of the public’s rage at the state of the country. Unless Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch are able to find ways of mounting a rearguard defence, they risk being vanquished at his hands.
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