The Reform Party’s local election campaign launch in Birmingham was more rock concert than political rally. Thousands of the party’s supporters packed out the 10,000-seat arena on Friday. The Tories – and indeed the other parties – could learn a thing or two about inspiring their party faithful.
The contrast between Reform’s local election campaign launch and the Tories’ is stark
There were people at the event in Birmingham of all ages and ethnicities; from those committed to the Farage cause for years, back to the Ukip days, to the merely curious. I spoke to a couple of guys in their mid-20s who had come all the way up from Jersey for the event. They weren’t members yet but wanted to see what the fuss was all about. When I asked them about parties other than Reform, they both wrinkled their noses: they were particularly sniffy about the Conservative party. ‘All I see from them is a bad version of Reform. If I wanted that, why wouldn’t I just vote for the real thing?’ one of them asked rhetorically.
David Bull was the compere throughout the main event itself. At its peak, the tone of the event reminded me of the Lib Dems at their very best (which I appreciate some Reform figures won’t take as a compliment, but it is meant as one). Here are the plucky outsiders who are taking on the establishment, threatening to give Brits what they truly want. At its worst, some of the speakers seemed lost between what I’ll term here ‘Rupert Lowe-ism’ (or, what former Reform head of press, Gawain Towler, calls the ‘Corbynista right’) and the niche Reform actually seem to want to carve out for themselves. To be fair, such moments were rare, not appreciated by the crowd much and tended to come only from those who until quite recently were within the Conservative fold. But it shows Reform still has much to learn.
During the rally, a mocked-up picture of Keir Starmer in clown makeup was revealed. The crowd giggled. A few seconds later, Boris Johnson as a clown was shown to them. They all went nuts, cheering wildly. Perhaps a note of warning for Conservative strategists mistakenly thinking that getting Boris back as leader is the way to the Reform vote.
The contrast between Reform’s local election campaign launch and the Tories’ – held last week – is stark. If this was 1997, the Conservatives could be forgiven for believing they have the time and space to get themselves together before for the next election. Perhaps they can chew through a few caretaker leaders in search of the next Tory prime minister. But it’s 2025 and Nigel Farage and his party are attracting thousands of admirers to their local election campaign launch. Yes, Reform has its troubles: the Farage vs. Lowe spat, played out in public, was ugly. But the moment of danger from that bust-up appears to have passed. If the party gains seats at the May local elections, Farage’s leadership will look unassailable. If they win the Runcorn by-election, or any of the mayoral contests, we might even be witnessing the start of a whole new era of British politics.
Reform are are eating the Tories for breakfast. What’s strange is that the Tories don’t even seem to have realised it.
Perhaps Reform really will fall apart over the coming years. Maybe being able to attract 10,000 people to an arena in Birmingham on a Friday evening will come to be seen as peak-Farage. But somehow, I don’t think so. Unless the Conservatives get extremely lucky – or stop doing all the wrong things and land on a strategy that has some hope of working – they are on course to be wiped out by Reform. If you were in Birmingham on Friday night like I was, watching those thousands of people chanting for Nigel, I don’t see how you wouldn’t be thinking the same thing.
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