Nigel Farage’s first trip to Scotland in six years hasn’t lacked drama. In Aberdeen this morning, the Reform UK leader announced his newest Tory defector and Granite Council’s first Reform man, Duncan Massey. In a sprightly presser, Farage proceeded to back new oil and gas licences in Scotland, defended his party’s ‘racist’ attack ad on Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and took a pop at a journalist, accusing the Herald newspaper of colluding with protestors outside (which it denies). After the Reform crowd then hopped in a helicopter to Larkhall – neglecting a rather furious bunch of journalists in Hamilton – the party’s Scottish branch announced its newest councillor: Jamie McGuire, a Labour politician of three years in Renfrewshire. Farage certainly doesn’t do things by halves.
There is a widespread nervousness in Scottish Labour that their worst fears may soon be realised
The defection of 24-year-old McGuire is a real coup for Reform UK ahead of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse poll this Thursday. The first Holyrood by-election for six years will be a close call but, as I wrote on Saturday, there is a widespread but broadly unspoken nervousness in Scottish Labour that their worst fears may soon be realised: that the polls suggesting Farage’s party could become the official opposition in Scotland are accurate. The defection of the Renfrewshire councillor today is a further blow for Anas Sarwar’s Labour party; it comes ahead of a televised debate tonight on STV which, thanks to the party’s reluctance to let its candidate Davy Russell face the media, will see Reform’s Ross Lambie take on the SNP’s Katy Loudon in a set-up that will further frame the contest as a ‘two-horse race’ between the nationalists and Reform UK.
Known to have ambitions far beyond that of working in local politics, McGuire has racked up an impressive CV despite his age. He immersed himself in student politics at Glasgow University, during which time he tweeted about his delight at meeting Jeremy Corbyn after being selected as the Labour candidate for the Paisley Southeast ward in Renfrewshire council. He was unsuccessful, but ran again a year later in 2022 for the Renfrew North and Braehead ward and represented the area for three years. McGuire was, until recently, working between Westminster and Scotland as a parliamentary researcher for Alison Taylor, the Labour MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire North, although he quit the post a month ago for reasons that until now were not clear. While Reform’s newest councillor had long been involved with Scottish Labour, he had been more vocal in recent months about his dissatisfaction with the party – claiming that his Labour colleagues ‘ice me out’ and that he was advised against doing media interviews. Perhaps a greater hint of his unhappiness was the switching out of his signature red tie to a teal-coloured number in the weeks leading up to his defection.
Today’s announcements mean Reform UK has 14 Scottish councillors. It claims on its website that it is the ‘UK’s fastest growing political movement’ – and so quickly has it picked up recruits that its website is struggling to keep up, boasting pictures of just ten of the new joiners and stating the total is at 12. The party is continuing to poll well north of the border: Westminster data from YouGov at the weekend showed the party had moved into second place behind the SNP, while a Norstat survey for the Sunday Times projected Reform will become Scotland’s third largest party – and take just two fewer seats than Labour in next year’s Holyrood election.
Cynical commentators suggest that Reform is simply rounding up power-hungry councillors who despair at their former party’s place in the polls. One senior Scottish Labour figure said of McGuire: ‘He’s just after a Holyrood list seat next year like Thomas Kerr (who defected from the Scottish Tories to Reform in January)’ Another insider told me the general response to McGuire’s move today could be summed up as ‘probably for the best’. Meanwhile when Massey was quizzed in Aberdeen earlier about whether he would stand for Reform at the Scottish parliament elections – the party won’t publish its finalised list until after the summer – the ex-Tory councillor admitted he wouldn’t rule it out. For their part, Reform organisers in Scotland say that they are considering imposing a deadline for defectors to avoid attracting those who are motivated to jump ship by power rather than principle. Whether that will come to pass is yet to be seen.
Reform may be experiencing a Scottish surge but it hasn’t all been plain sailing for Farage. Since last week, he has been dealing with the fallout from an attack ad his party pushed that suggested Sarwar would prioritise the Pakistani community above other Scots – despite the Scottish Labour leader saying nothing of the sort. At today’s presser, the Reform leader proceeded to confuse Sarwar with former SNP first minister Humza Yousaf.
On his vision for Scotland, Farage told journalists that the Barnett formula – the mechanism used to allocate funding from Westminster to the devolved nations – is ‘out of date’. It comes after Reform’s Thomas Kerr told The Spectator that one of the party’s first policies in Scotland will be to reform Holyrood – but will news reports suggesting Farage could ‘scrap’ Scotland’s funding go down well with voters desperate to see better funded public services? Although Reform UK has picked up another two councillors today, the party still has a long way to go if it is, as Kerr told me on Coffee House Shots, to stand a candidate in every seat in Scotland. Despite the fact that Reform faces a number of challenges before next year’s Holyrood election, it can’t be denied the momentum is with Farage.
