Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O’Flynn

Richard Tice, not Nigel Farage, should terrify the Tories

(Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)

The terms of the Covid debate have changed markedly since Nigel Farage decided to re-enter the political arena after Boris Johnson’s second English lockdown. Even with multiple vaccines coming on stream, we can still not rule out a third lockdown — but we can be pretty darned sure there won’t be a fourth. It’s not the end of the beginning, but the beginning of the end.

So Farage and his chief lieutenant Richard Tice can no longer depend on anti-lockdown fervour alone to give them a flying start, despite the rebellious mood of Tory MPs. Could they, therefore, decide that discretion is the better part of valour and call the whole thing off, especially if there is no Brexit deal and Britain ends up going for WTO rules as they have called for?

Well, in short, no. The pair and their closest supporters are still raring to go, doing whatever the 21st-century equivalent is of waiting by the phone to hear back from the Electoral Commission about whether their preferred rebrand as Reform UK is a goer. One source close to the senior reaches of the Brexit Party, the current mothballed brand, describes the mood as ‘expectant, baited optimism’.

Tice is not the first person to forge a duumvirate with Farage, but he is certainly the first to master the art of the sidekick

Even if the remaining chapters of the Covid story are dominated by a relatively smooth journey back to normality — and even if the purest possible Brexit emerges (which it probably won’t) — the new venture will go ahead. 

This is because of two key factors. The first concerns the sheer array of touchstone issues still up for grabs for a new right-of-centre offer. The second factor guaranteeing the new venture will go ahead is Tice himself.

Even after lockdowns and Brexit have passed, there still remains: Rishi Sunak’s tax rises; the ever more intrusive and expensive carbon reduction policies of the PM, including a war on motorists and a looming withdrawal of domestic gas supply; the actuality of the immigration system (as opposed to the Tories talking a good game); a feeling that this is a crony administration that favours its friends over ordinary folk; ministerial reticence in the face of radical Islam; wider culture war issues; and a general sense of scratchiness towards a Tory party that is heading towards the start of its twelfth successive year in power next spring.

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