It will not come as much of a shock to learn that people who voted Conservative in 2019 generally think their chosen party is fairly useless these days. A new poll this week from YouGov has broken this down issue by issue – the results make chastening reading for any Tory MP who thinks the party has done a decent job in government over the past four years.
The Tories have lost the approval of an outright majority of their 2019 voters on nearly every big political issue. Only 46 per cent of them now say the Conservatives are the best party on law and order, 44 per cent for the economy, 41 per cent for taxation, 37 per cent for handling asylum and immigration and 28 per cent for the NHS.
Sunak’s advisers have worked out that there is no political reward attached to trying to win approval from centrist opinion
At first glance this looks like yet more supporting evidence for the ‘game over’ brigade – the people who think the next election is in the bag for Keir Starmer. Yet I draw the opposite conclusion and I know there are Tory-leaning pollsters who share that view. This is because another striking feature about this opinion research is how few 2019 Tories have swung to Labour on these big issues.
On law and order just seven per cent now say Labour is best, on asylum and immigration eight per cent, on the economy nine per cent and on taxation 11 per cent. Only on the NHS has Labour been able to win approval from a significant chunk of 2019 Tories, with 22 per cent rating it best.
When one recalls all the disasters that have befallen the government in the past four years, this is a strikingly poor performance from Labour. On the economy alone, just think of the cost of living crisis and the mortgage hike disaster that many voters pin on Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget. The Tories have performed with all the assurance of a learner driver bunny-hopping his way through a seven-point turn. And yet only a tenth of their 2019 voters think shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves – generally regarded as a Labour star performer – would do better.
Rishi Sunak’s silver lining is clear: the voters he needs to win back have by and large not crossed the aisle to Labour. Instead, most lurk in three other categories, each of which represents only half a step away from the Tories.
First there are those who answer ‘none’ when asked which party would be best. This actively grumpy cohort alone dwarfs the defectors to Labour, amounting to 24 per cent of 2019 Tories on asylum and immigration, 25 per cent on the NHS, 20 per cent on the economy and 19 per cent on both taxation and crime.
Then throw in those answering ‘don’t know’ and you get another 20 per cent, 18 per cent, 19 per cent, 20 per cent and 19 per cent respectively. Finally, there is a smaller group who specify an alternative party other than Labour or the Lib Dems. These voters are likely to have in mind the Reform party or perhaps another small party on the Tory right flank and constitute roughly another five per cent of 2019 Tories.
Overall, about eight in every ten Tories who have drifted away from the party on the most salient issues have not been remotely impressed by Labour. If Sunak can win these people back then the Tories will become very competitive going into the 2024 election.
So no wonder the Prime Minister is suddenly sounding more stridently Tory. His advisers have finally worked out that after four consecutive Conservative terms there is no political reward attached to trying to win approval from centrist opinion. Pursuing more so-called ‘liberal Conservatism’ is an electoral dead end.
Instead, the vast majority of potentially available extra votes belong to those who backed Boris Johnson’s offer last time and have never been converted to the outlook of Keir Starmer or Ed Davey. These people, a vast rag-bag army of don’t knows, won’t votes or Reform-curious folk, are much more likely to be won back by right-wing Conservative policies on immigration, taxation, the economy in general and crime.
If Sunak can whip up their innate hostility towards Labour at the same time then so much the better for him. Despite Labour’s current average poll lead of 20 per cent, the next election really is still up for grabs.
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