So there was no great rush of arrivals from Romania and Bulgaria on day one – nor was there ever likely to be. The numbers will build steadily as they did from Poland in 2004.
How many is another question. The key difference with Poland is that other countries, notably Germany, France, The Netherlands and Austria will be opening their labour markets at the same time; other members have already done so.
The other major difference is that about a million, mainly Romanians, have already gone to Spain and a similar number to Italy. In Spain unemployment is now about 25% and youth unemployment is just over 50%; the same figures for Italy are 12% and 33%. There must be at least a possibility that some will head North, as indeed some young Italians and Spaniards themselves are already doing.
Certainly there will be strong financial incentives to do so.
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