Rory Sutherland: How to improve journey times without HS2

I am still waiting for someone to refute my argument that it would be possible to reduce the journey time between London and Manchester or Birmingham for many rail passengers by between 20 and 40 minutes — and to improve effective capacity — at about 0.001 per cent of the cost of HS2. This would be done simply using software, not hardware.

Last Thursday I travelled to Manchester to give a talk in the afternoon. The journeys up and back were flawless. But they did take 40 minutes longer than necessary — in both directions. Why?

A month before, once I knew that I had to travel to Manchester, I did what every sane person would do. I booked an ‘Advance’ ticket there and back on specified trains. This means you can travel up and back in first class for about a quarter of the £400 it costs for a fully flexible return — and for less than it costs to buy an off-peak second-class return.

The risk is that if you miss your train, you have to pay the full price for a replacement ticket and all the money you have paid for the Advance ticket is forfeited. This prospect understandably frightens my inner Calvinist. So unless you live within walking distance, you need to set off insanely early in order to leave a large margin for error. I duly arrived 48 minutes before my train was due to leave. This meant two Virgin trains to Manchester left half-empty before I was allowed to board the 10.20 a.m. train I had booked. I spent the intervening time unproductively mooching around Euston.

Now, with a roomful of coders and £500,000 it would be perfectly possible to create a revised pricing system and a mobile phone app which would allow anyone to switch to an earlier train, capacity permitting.