Runners and riders for next First Minister

Where there’s death, there’s life. And the departure of Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister after eight years means there’s a vacancy as top dog in the Scottish parliament. Who could replace her? One Panelbase poll conducted last week shows there’s an overwhelming favourite among the various pretenders: ‘don’t know’ took a whopping 69 per cent of the public vote. Fortunately for the SNP, some of their actual elected politicians scored favourably too – though none more than seven per cent. Below is Steerpike’s guide to the most likely runners and riders to succeed Scotland’s nationalist-in-chief, with odds from Ladbrokes.

Angus Robertson – 6/5

The bookies’ favourite and a familiar face to Westminster watchers. Robertson led the SNP in the House of Commons from 2007 to 2017 before losing his seat to Douglas Ross. He then headed up to Holyrood where he has served since 2021 as Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs and Culture. Robertson is a thoughtful strategist and a long-term player of the political game. In some ways, he would be the Sturgeon continuity candidate. 

Kate Forbes – 7/2

The favourite in Holyrood to replace Sturgeon, Forbes has long been seen as her most natural successor, having been appointed as Finance Secretary at the age of just 29 in 2020. She is currently on maternity leave – which means she hasn’t been front and centre of the recent battles over the controversial Gender Recognition Reform Act. But her views on abortion antagonise SNP progressives, not least given efforts by Nationalist and Green MSPs to outlaw prayer vigils outside abortion clinics. 

Forbes is a committed member of the Free Church of Scotland and has previously said she has had to ‘tiptoe’ around her Christian faith. Would she be able to reconcile that with her party’s socially liberal views? It proved a difficult bind for Tim Farron in 2017.

But if she could come to some sort of truce with progressives, Forbes could be a formidable leader. She’s young, clever, canny, moderate and not a cookie-cutter politician. Her moderation would cause problems for the Scottish Tories and her position as a prominent Highlander would make life more difficult for the Scottish Lib Dems, who have traditionally been strong in that part of the country.

John Swinney – 6/1

Has served as Sturgeon’s deputy first minister since 2014. The quietly-spoken SNP veteran led the party from 2000 to 2004 – though his tenure was not a happy one and he was beset by leaks, briefings and internal ill-discipline. He has been a mainstay of every government for the past 15 years. Swinney has successively held the Finance, Education and Covid Recovery briefs but he seems unlikely to mount a tilt to replace Sturgeon. Her departure is seen as a passing of the torch moment, whereas Swinney will be celebrating his 60th birthday next year. And whether he would want to return to the leadership is another question, though the SNP of 2023 is a different beast to the party of 2004. Swinney is a bit of a shouter – his rhetorical style might be called verbal thuggery – and while that can intimidate opposition politicians, it might be off-putting to ordinary voters.  

Keith Brown – 7/1

A former Royal Marines veteran who served in the Falklands War, Brown has served as the deputy leader of the party since 2018. Has held a succession of posts in government, culminating in his current brief as the Cabinet Secretary for Justice and Veterans. However last week’s Panelbase poll put him as a less popular choice than both Stephen Flynn and Mairi McAllan – neither of whom were even parliamentarians when he took up the post of deputy leader. Does he have cut-through?

Humza Yousaf 10/1

Yousaf, currently the Scottish Health Secretary, used to be spoken of as a future leader. Such patter has died down in recent years, not least given his less than impressive handling of the Scottish NHS. He and his wife also recently withdrew a discrimination case against a nursery in relation to their attempts to gain a place for their daughter. 

Alex Salmond – long shot

Stranger things have happened.