Peter Hoskin

Russia makes yet another aggressive move

Russia’s formal recognition of the “independence” of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is one of the most aggressive moves it could have made in the geopolitical chess game it’s playing with Georgia and the West.  For starters, it increases the likelihood of future military conflict.  The worry now is that any Georgian involvement in the breakaway regions will be used by Moscow as an excuse to mobilise its forces once again, all in the name of protecting South Ossetian and/or Abkhazian independence. 

But it also effectively denies the West a democratic solution to the problem.  Many policymakers had hoped that the independence question could have been resolved by internationally-monitored referenda.  Even if those referenda do eventually go ahead, the sight of numerous South Ossetians and Abkhazians celebrating in the streets today suggests that the results would be immaterial.  For those people, Russian support – and the military might behind it – is enough in itself.  And that spells danger for any Georgians living in either of the two regions.

Comments

Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months

Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.

Already a subscriber? Log in