Just yesterday, Vladimir Putin criticised David Cameron’s decision suspended all flights to Egypt. This afternoon, he has done the same – which suggests that the Kremlin now agrees with Britain that there is a strong chance that the Airbus 321 was downed by an Isil bomb. And if Putin does believe that, then we expect some kind of retaliation.
Yesterday, the Russians were telling Brits to wait for the outcome of the investigation before suspending flights to Egypt. This afternoon, Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB security service, said:
‘Until we know the real reasons for what happened, I consider it expedient to stop Russian flights to Egypt. Above all, this concerns tourist routes.’
The question is whether Russia, if it does conclude that the crash was caused by a terrorist package, decides to pull back from its operations in Syria, or go after Islamic State with a vengeance. Will it retaliate in the same way as the Jordanians did to the death of pilot Muath Safi Yousef al-Kasasbeh, with a furious and immediate round of air strikes? And what then would be the global reaction to that?
In this week’s magazine, James explains that the US is waiting to ‘see how deep a hole the Russians will dig for themselves there’ and that Putin may find he has bitten off more than he can chew.
And while David Cameron’s decision to suspend flights has now been copied by the Russians, what will increased Russian aggression towards Isis mean for potential British involvement in Syria? This week it was suggested that Cameron was cooling towards the idea of a vote in the Commons on action in Syria, and while that was denied by Number 10, those working on the potential vote will be watching Putin’s next move very closely.
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