Alex Massie Alex Massie

Sarah Palin: For Real and For 2012

Like Time’s Jay Newton-Small, I’ve never quite understood why so many Washington pundits have assumed Sarah Palin has no interest in running for President. Sure, she’s not been playing the game according to the Beltway Playbook but that’s exactly the point. As Jay reminds us, Mrs Palin has previous on this:

In many ways, Palin’s moves mirror her run for governor. She came from the outside, taking down the GOP establishment, including the formidable Governor Frank Murkowski. She stayed on the outside for months, not bothering to build a campaign but delivering key speeches across the state attacking “the old boys club” that raised speculation she’d potentially run. And, finally, when she did announce her campaign burst into life fully formed.

That’s, I guess, what she’s planning this time while still, to be sure, leaving just enough room to withdraw from the race should she change her mind or think running too much hassle. Nevertheless, the more impressive her fundraising the harder it may become to leave the field free for others. But anyway, here are some reasons why she can, should and will run. Note, these have little to do with her chances of success. That’s a different matter altogether.

1. Money. She will raise enough to be properly competitive. In one sense this is a simple Viability Question that, in the end, seperates her from the likes of Huckabee. Palin won’t need the party’s tradition – establishment! – fundraising network. Like Obama (and Howard Dean and Ron Paul, albeit on a more limited scale) she’ll rake in cash from small donations.

2. She has a natural constituency that extends some way beyond the Grizzly Mamas. What’s Tim Pawlenty’s constituency? (Dull Midwestern Sorta Competence! You Know It Won’t Win!) The reach of Palin’s constituency – part of which is made up of those who feel themselves excluded, marginalised, snubbed and patronised by the party bigwigs – is one reason why suggestions that Palin become GOP Chairman only make sense inside the Beltway.

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