Reform continues to rise in Scotland and the Scottish political and media class continue either to ignore it or hold panicked summits on countering the ‘far right’. Thursday’s council by-election for Clydebank Waterfront, in West Dunbartonshire, saw Reform come second despite never having contested this ward before. The SNP proved the eventual victor in the seventh round of counting – Scottish local elections are conducted using single transferrable vote – but Reform narrowly beat Labour into third place. They used to weigh the votes for Labour in Clydebank, a town once synonymous with the socialist radicalism of Red Clydeside. Like manners and Saturday night telly, the Scottish Labour party ain’t what it used to be, but it’s remarkable that the people’s party is now being outpolled by an Essex Man tribute act in the heartland of the deindustrialised west of Scotland.
There is now plainly a trend in place, one I pointed out last November following three Glasgow council by-elections in which Reform came out of nowhere to claim third place. Nigel Farage’s party is not just a threat to the Tories in Scotland, but to Labour too. A Survation poll earlier this month put Reform comfortably in second place in Scottish voting intentions for the next general election, with the party polling three times as much support as it secured in last year’s vote. Downing Street might tell itself it has enough time to reposition itself vis-a-vis Reform and claw back many of its 2024 voters, but it doesn’t have enough time in Scotland. The next Scottish Parliament election is 12 months away.
Although Scotland has never been especially fertile ground for Farage – we have our own rabble-rousing nationalists, thank you very much – its parliament presents real opportunities for an insurgent outfit like Reform. Roughly 40 per cent of seats at Holyrood are elected using the additional member system, a closed party-list method intended to increase proportionality and which has transformed the fortunes of the Scottish Greens. The same Survation poll puts Reform on 20 per cent on the list vote, which would likely make them the main opposition at Holyrood.
Reform has managed this despite, and perhaps because, it has publicised no policies on devolved affairs. Voters are thoroughly scunnered with the alternatives, seeing Keir Starmer as untrustworthy (scrapping winter fuel payments to pensioners) and the Tories as even less reliable, having squandered their 14 years in office with little to show for it. Among opponents of Scottish independence, Reform seems to be the natural choice. It is a means of venting frustration without voting for anything specific. Specifics can make populist parties considerably less appealing.
The trouble for the mainstream parties is that it’s hard to fight an amorphous howl of rage. They don’t understand the voters they’re losing to Reform, don’t know why exactly that party appeals to an electorate it has hitherto neglected, and don’t know how to prise them away. Reform’s momentum is building and its opponents can only look on in confusion and despair.
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