All is not well in the Labour party. While Sir Keir Starmer’s government fends off questions about the state of the economy and its worsening poll performance, things aren’t looking much better north of the border. New Scottish voting data has dropped this morning – and Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour lot have much to be worried about…
Less than a quarter of Scots say they would use their constituency vote to back Labour in the 2026 Holyrood election, while barely a fifth of the population would vote for Sarwar’s party on the regional list. The survey reveals that the Scottish Labour leader is simply not yet popular enough to persuade voters to support him in the face of their disappointment with Starmer’s army in Westminster – and voters blame the performance of the Starmtroopers for their views about Sarwar’s group. Quizzed in Holyrood today by the Scottish lobby, Scotland Secretary Ian Murray was asked about Labour’s performance in the polls after a rocky start for Starmer. ‘We were honest with the public back in July that it would be tough,’ Murray insisted. ‘Maybe the public don’t like honesty after all.’ Er, right. That’s one way of viewing it…
Despite the turmoil the SNP found itself embroiled in after its Dear Leader's resignation two years ago, more people would rather see nationalist leader John Swinney stay on as First Minister after the Holyrood poll than have Anas Sarwar replace him. A quarter of Scots think Swinney would make the best FM, while Sarwar only has the backing of 16 per cent. Perhaps more tellingly, almost four in ten people say they don't know who they'd want in the top job.
The Nats would take a third of the vote, according to the survey, which would leave the SNP as the biggest party in Holyrood – but with a significantly depleted group compared to now. Meanwhile, as in the rest of the UK, Nigel Farage's Reform party looks to make gains north of the border. The group is predicted to take 13 per cent of the vote share on both the constituency ballot and regional list vote, which could leave them with as many as 15 MSPs in 2026. This is according to seat extrapolations carried out by polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice – and would put Reform neck and neck with the Scottish Conservatives. Golly.
'Even without a leader in Scotland,' remarked Holyrood Sources co-host Andy Maciver, 'Reform UK is attracting the votes of people who clearly feel the mainstream has failed them.' He went on:
If Reform's vote sticks then for the first time we may be in a situation where finding two parties who can together command a Holyrood majority could be a substantial hurdle.
The 2026 Holyrood election might becoming a rather interesting race after all…
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