Can Tom Elliott lead the Ulster Unionists? That’s the question commentators in Northern Ireland are asking, after the party suffered yet another reverse at the polls. Elliott was elected leader on a landslide in September and he is already under pressure, seemingly powerless to arrest the decline of the once dominant force in Northern Irish politics. He is visibly rattled, as the clip above proves. It was probably a reaction in the heat of the moment, but one that should alarm for those Tories who still seek an alliance with the UUP.*
It was hoped that the scale of Elliott’s victory would unite the fractious party. But the divisions that characterised Sir Reg Empey’s leadership have intensified under Elliott. The factions are many and various. Elliott stands on the party’s traditional protestant wing: Elliot makes a point of not attending gay pride marches and famously snubbed the Gaelic Games last year. His leadership opponent, Basil McCrea, leads a group of softly-spoken modernisers, styling themselves “progressive unionists”. At the start of recent assembly election campaign, McCrea said he was “unconcerned” by the prospect of Martin McGuiness being First Minister, a statement that inspired a vicious set-to with traditionalist David McNarry, who condemned McCrea’s “betrayal”.
The party is collapsing under the weight of these personality and policy clashes. Three former Westminster candidates have left the party since Elliott assumed power – David McClarty, Paula Bradshaw and Trevor Ringland. McClarty won his Londonderry seat at Stormont last Thursday as an independent; the surest sign that voters are following the politicians. McClarty has indicated that he may return to the fold; but he is unlikely to do so under Elliott’s direction.
The UUP is also short of cash. I’m told by a UUP donor that the party attended the infamous meeting at Hatfield House in January 2010 in the hope of securing funds. It was not successful.
Given these difficulties, perhaps it’s unsurprising that the party performed so badly on Thursday. The loss of 2 more seats at Stormont and the possibility of having only one voice on the executive panel of 10 are the latest setbacks to befall this once august party. The Elliott experiment may soon prove misbegotten. But, as James noted yesterday, it is very difficult to see how the party’s decline is anything other than inexorable. *Owen Paterson, the secretary of state for Northern Ireland, remains intent on forging non-sectarian politics in Ulster, but it is not yet clear if the formal alliance between the Tories and the UUP will be revived for the next election.
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