And so it continues. The FT reports that Sir Alan Budd has denied that George Osborne cooked the OBR’s job loss forecasts. ‘It was genuinely
a forecasting correction with no ministerial interference,’ he said, blandly. The correction was the result of the OBR’s use of a narrow definition of public sector workforce than
is employed by other statisticians.
That is not abnormal: statisticians are a law unto themselves. But, as the saying goes, it doesn’t look good. The OBR’s figures supported the government and the story is beginning to emit of a whiff of mendacity. Once more, George Osborne is in a mess of his own making. His political instincts veer from brilliance to catastrophe with an unpredictable regularity. Osborne’s refusal to concede patronage over the OBR was a miscalculation: it politicises the OBR, reinforcing the opposition’s case. Alistair Darling is right: a good idea has been marred.
To rescue the situation, Osborne must appoint someone who is absolutely beyond reproach. Robert Chote is that man. Independence is Chote’s raison d’être, and he is immune to
the worldly temptations of politics – there is something of the monk about him. The government should grant his demands and make an appointment that will restore confidence.
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