And just like that, the local elections have rolled around once again. On Thursday 4 May, 230 councils will be going to the polls: over 8,000 seats are up for grabs in England, including 3,365 currently held by Tories and 2,131 by Labour councillors. It will be Rishi Sunak’s first big test, with both parties viewing it as a ‘dry run’ ahead of the general election next year. The impact of the new voter ID laws will be scrutinised closely too.
The last time these seats were up for election was in 2019, when both parties suffered a bad night. Labour now have a commanding 15-point lead and are predicted to make gains of between 400 to 700 seats while Tory expectations are low, with estimates of losses ranging from 500 to 1,000 councillors.
Much of the media attention will be focused on a mix of ‘Blue Wall’ strongholds targeted by the Liberal Democrats in the south of England and ‘Red Wall’ areas in the north of the country which should swing back to Labour. Other bellwether councils like Swindon will prove useful to both parties in highlighting where resources ought to be targeted next year.
Total vote share will be keenly watched too. Will Labour be able to achieve anything close to the same percentage swing nationally as Tony Blair did at the 1996 locals, when the party won 43 per cent of the vote?
Below are seven key battlegrounds that will define election night 2023:
Hartlepool
Boris Johnson memorably triumphed in this Red Wall area in the spring 2021 by-election. Just a third of the council’s 36 seats are up for grabs, and with the council under no overall control since 2016, both Tories and Labour would have to gain six additional seats to pip the other to power. In May 2022, even as Johnson struggled, the Conservatives here still made two gains on the council. A repeat seems unlikely this time but Hartlepool has a strong tradition of independence and idiosyncrasy. Results are expected at 1 a.m. on Friday 5 March.
Stoke-on-Trent
Another stalwart Red Wall seat, the pressure is on Labour to make gains here and prove that Starmer’s leadership is winning back supporters. All three of the area’s constituencies were once Labour-held but are currently represented by Tories. Stoke is clearly at the forefront of the Labour leader’s mind as he paid the area a visit on the campaign trail back in March.
Currently run by a Conservative minority administration of 22, Labour would need to gain 13 seats to claim back their majority, last held in 2015. The party will be hoping that ward boundary changes here will again work to their advantage. The area has, in recent days, been rocked by allegations of postal vote fraud after individuals posing as council workers went door to door allegedly collecting postal votes. All of Stoke-on-Trent’s 44 seats are up for grabs. First results are expected from 1:30 a.m. on Friday 5 May, with the count expected to be completed by 8 a.m.
Darlington
In Red Wall Teesside, Darlington will be a key Tory-Labour battleground on Thursday. The town has received special attention from the senior leadership of both parties, with Sunak and Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen pictured studiously inspecting potholes in the area at the end of March. Angela Rayner paid the town a visit recently too. Currently controlled by a Tory minority administration which wrestled power away from Labour In 2019, all 50 of the council’s seats are up for election. Results are expected after 12 noon on Friday 5 May.
Stratford-upon-Avon
The Liberal Democrats are eyeing up this council in the Midlands, which overlaps with Nadhim Zahawi’s constituency patch. Currently controlled by the Tories with 20 seats, ward boundary changes have Ed Davey’s party fancying their chances at gaining the eight seats they need to claim a majority on the 41-strong district council. Should the Tories lose control here, it will give some indication as to the scale of the Lib Dem challenge facing the party at the next general election. Final results are expected by 1 p.m. on Friday 5 May
Swindon
Keir Starmer launched the party’s local election campaign here, demonstrating just how important Swindon is to Labour. The Conservative majority is down to just three after being whittled away in recent years, with 19 of the council’s 57 seats now up for grabs. In 2022, Labour won 12 seats here and will be hoping to surpass this performance to take control. Starmer’s party last held a parliamentary constituency here in 2010 so a good result in this bellwether seat will be read as an encouraging sign for the national picture. Final results are expected at 1 p.m. on Friday 5 May.
Surrey Heath
For 50 years this borough council has always either been Tory-run or under ‘no overall control’. That could all change later this week, with the Lib Dems scenting success in Michael Gove’s home patch. Sir Ed Davey’s party need to gain another nine seats to win a majority here – a tough task even with the Conservatives nationally on 27 per cent. All 35 seats on the council are up for selection. First ward results are expected from 12 noon on Friday 5 May, with final results expected by 2 p.m.
Mid Suffolk
The Greens are expected to win control of this district council – only the second local authority they have ever taken across the country. The party has certainly been putting in the legwork here, launching its local election campaign in the town of Stowmarket. Currently led by a Tory minority administration, the Greens would need to gain an additional six seats to their current 12 to claim the majority here. Based on their performance in 2019, when they gained seven seats, this could be achievable. All of Mid Suffolk’s 34 council seats are being voted on. First ward results are expected from 10.30 a.m. on Friday 5 May, with final results expected by 6 p.m.
Comments