David Cameron is visiting Scotland today to set out his blueprint for Scottish home rule. Might he expect to see a lapse in the nationalist sentiment during his first visit since the referendum? No, according to a new poll from STV. The SNP remain on 52 per cent of the vote — exactly the same as in October. According to STV, this would give the SNP 55 seats in Westminster, while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats would be left without any MPs north of the border. The Scots also appear pleased with the new SNP leadership: nearly 70 per cent stated they are satisfied with Nicola Sturgeon’s performance as First Minister.
It’s clear that Jim Murphy has got one heck of a job on his hands. Since October, the Scottish Labour Party has seen their vote share increase by just one point. Based on this prediction, Labour would only be left with six seats in Scotland: Glasgow North East, Glasgow South West, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, and Coatbridge and Chryston and Bellshill.
In contrast to the high approval ratings for Sturgeon, just 34 per cent are satisfied with the way Jim Murphy is leading the Scottish Labour Party. At least he is more popular than Ed Miliband — just 21 per cent of Scots think he is doing a good job leading Labour.
Many had hoped Murphy would be the man to stem the SNP tide but just under half said his elevation to leader of Scottish Labour will make no difference as to whether they will vote for Labour in May. 28 per cent said it will either make them a little or lot less likely to vote Labour.
Murphy’s recent stance on the Mansion Tax may give the Labour Party a disjointed look but this poll shows the scale of the challenge facing his party. Labour still despertly needs CPR in Scotland and he has little choice but to go off message in an attempt to avoid electoral wipeout. Murphy (and to a lesser extent Cameron) still have to Scottish persuade voters there is a strong future for them within the union and the SNP are not best placed to deliver this. Otherwise, chaos at Westminster after 7 May will ensue.
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