The Middle Eastern merry-go-round takes another turn with the news that President Ali Abdullah Saleh has fled to Saudi Arabia. He has been promising to depart his role, if not his country, for some time now — but the wounds he allegedly sustained after an attack on his compound may have forced the issue. There’s always the possibility that he could return to Yemen after his treatment across the border, although it’s an unlikely prospect. The Saudis have already gone out of their way by granting this brutal dicatator some degree of clemency, without foisting him back upon his country. And Saleh will already have lost power and influence by accepting their help.
Don’t be swayed by the images of celebrating Yemenis, though: this is not yet a victory for the democracy-seeking Arab Spring brigade, and there’s every chance that it may never be. The attack on Saleh HQ is said to have been organsied by the rival Hashid tribal confederation, ruled over by Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar. But even if that’s not the case, fighters loyal to al-Ahmar are certainly promoting his interests across the country by knife and by gun. This is still all about tribe versus tribe, rather than freedom versus totalitarianism. And, in the meantime, al-Qaeda are left unminded to operate in the nooks and crannies of a failing state.
Little wonder, then, why William Hague was expressing his worry at the situation on the Marr show earlier. American officials have described the cancerous presence of Islamist terror in Yemen as the “most significant risk” to their homeland, and it sounds as though our Foreign Secretary might think likewise. Any uncertainty in the country could have very real — and very tragic — consequences elsewhere.
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