Ross Clark Ross Clark

Stanford study suggests Covid infections are 50 to 85 times more than confirmed cases

Another day, and yet more evidence has appeared that could indicate the number of people who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19, might be vastly higher than official figures suggest. This time a Californian study suggests the figure in one county could be more than 50 times the number who knew they had had the virus.

A team from Stanford university and other US universities recruited volunteers in Santa Clara County via Facebook adverts and produced a sample of 3000 representatives of the county as a whole. They were then invited for blood tests to detect the presence of antibodies to the virus. The result was positive in 1.5 per cent of cases. Adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity the results suggest that 2.8 per cent of people in the county had already had the virus. That might not seem many, but at the time of the study – on 4th and 5th April – only 1,094 people in the county were recorded as having the virus. The study suggests the real figure is between 48,000 and 81,000.  As the put it, “50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.”

Like many studies which have been pre-published in order to aid understanding of the Covid-19 pandemic, the paper produced by the Stanford-led team has not yet been peer-reviewed. Moreover, it took place in a part of California where very few people have so far tested positive with the virus. It would be interesting to see the experiment repeated in New York City, where recorded infections are far higher. 

But it is one more piece in a jigsaw which is slowly building up a picture of a virus which may be far more prevalent – and possibly far less deadly – than was at first believed.

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