Status Anxiety: The destiny of Boris Johnson

I’ve spent most of the past few days tramping the streets of Hammersmith, doing whatever I could to get out the vote. Like most Conservative party members in London, I’m nervous that Boris’s strong showing in the polls might lead to complacency. Ken Livingstone may be a weak candidate in many respects, but he’s a formidable machine politician. Every last drop of effort needed to be expended if Boris was to be sure of re-election.

Having said that, I’m cautiously optimistic. Not only will a Boris victory be good news for London and the country — can you imagine the Olympics opening ceremony being presided over by Ken? — it will be good news for my bank balance, too. As I mentioned in these pages last year, I bet Nigella Lawson £15,000 in 2002 that Boris would become leader of the Conservative party within 15 years. His re-election as Mayor will make that considerably more likely.

Until about a month ago, I imagined a Boris victory would hurt Ed Miliband. But David Cameron’s star has fallen so far in recent weeks it might end up hurting him instead. The Cameron-hating Conservative newspapers are bound to float the idea of ousting him in favour of Boris before the next election. A little bit far-fetched at the moment, perhaps, but it’s hard to predict how much damage the Leveson inquiry will inflict on Cameron’s premiership. Between now and 2015 — if the government lasts that long — Boris will be talked up as an alternative leader every time the Prime Minister takes a hit.

Boris will pooh-pooh this speculation, as he always has done. He’ll point out that he already has an important job in politics. In any event, how could he replace Cameron when he doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons? Neither of these are insurmountable obstacles, of course.