With French President Sarkozy having called an emergency EU summit to discuss Georgia, Europe’s finest diplomatic minds are now trying to decide what the leaders should actually talk about when they meet.
In the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Georgia, the EU sought to avoid the issue altogether. Much has been made of the diplomatic offensive undertaken by President Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, which brought to the fighting to an end. But Russian troops remain ensconced inside Georgia, against the spirit if not the actual letter of the EU-brokered six-point plan. So what can EU leaders now do?
Help is luckily at hand. My two colleagues Andrew Wilson and Nicu Popescu, who have both made a life out of studying Russia and its neighbourhood, have just published a paper with a number of ideas.
The EU, they argue, should follow up the six-point peace agreement with a comprehensive regional strategy for Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. It should also push for an international peacekeeping mandate in Georgia’s secessionist regions, and take the lead in the post-conflict reconstruction effort.
Then the EU should strengthen its membership pledge toward Ukraine and Moldova, speed up negotiations with Georgia on a free trade agreement, agree on a visa facilitation deal, and offer Neighbourhood Policy benefits (funding, trade and infrastructure projects) to the secessionist regions, too.
Finally, to underscore its support for international law, the authors urge the EU to push for an international commission of inquiry to establish a full account of responsibility for the fighting. The commission could be modeled on the Independent International Commission on Kosovo, and should report to the UN Secretary General.
No doubt some EU leaders will want to add punitive measures against Russia. But while Moscow is not immune to international pressure, there is probably little the EU can do in the short-term. Better, therefore, to pay particular attention to developments in Ukraine – so to avoid a new-style “domino effect” – and begin the long-term embrace of Georgia. That does not mean giving Georgia NATO membership, just as Turkey’s negotiations with the EU do not amount to automatic membership. But it means putting the country back on the road.
You can read the whole report here.
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