Rishi Sunak arrived in Poland today to announce a £500 million boost in aid to Ukraine, using the trip to Warsaw to also finally put a timeline on increasing Britain’s defence spending. By 2030, the Prime Minister pledged to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP. His announcements come ahead of a much anticipated meeting with German chancellor Olaf Scholz tomorrow – one which may prove to be more awkward than either leader had originally anticipated.
This morning, Berlin briefed out its displeasure at Westminster’s heel-dragging on UK spending contributions to European security. ‘There does not seem to be any plan to increase defence spending at all,’ a senior German official told Politico. ‘If the UK still wants to have a leading part in European security then it needs to increase its spending’. Scholz wouldn’t ‘lecture’ Sunak, the official added, but he would be sure to deliver this ‘message’.
The spotlight is firmly back on the Chancellor’s management of his own armed forces and commitment to Nato
During their bilateral tomorrow, the plan is for the two to discuss ‘issues of international politics’, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a German government read-out stated. But, behind the scenes, Berlin’s briefing suggested Scholz would go one step further and collar Sunak about Britain’s own defence commitments and contributions towards European security. Sunak’s announcements today will certainly have left Scholz feeling more than a little embarrassed.
The source of Germany’s ire had been Sunak’s failure to make any progress on his pledge back in March 2023 to increase UK defence spending. At the time, the Prime Minister had promised only to 2.5 per cent of GDP in the ‘longer term’. Since then, defence spending has hovered just above 2 per cent (the annual expenditure pledged by Nato members). Just last month, chancellor Jeremy Hunt had said the economy would need to be in better health before more funds could be committed to defence. While Sunak’s pledge is contingent on him returning to Downing Street following the election, it would take Britain’s defence spending to even higher level above Germany’s than is currently the case.
Now, then, the spotlight is firmly back on the Chancellor’s management of his own armed forces and commitment to Nato. Germany has long struggled to get close to 2 per cent of GDP themselves. This year will be the first time Germany meets that target for more than three decades. With the Bundeswehr dilapidated, under-recruited and largely hollowed out thanks to donations to Ukraine, Sunak’s team could rightly question how quickly Germany would be realistically able to come to Europe’s defence should the conflict in Ukraine creep west.
Despite insistences from both London and Berlin that Scholz and Sunak maintain a friendly relationship – the Chancellor’s relief at no longer having to deal with Boris Johnson is, reportedly, an open secret – this miscalculated briefing against the Prime Minister is unlikely to make for a warm meeting between the two. That is has taken Sunak this long to visit the German capital at all is a subject that has become increasingly sore the more time dragged on. As far back as last summer, German newspapers were keeping score on the number of months that had passed without Sunak visiting Berlin, pointing out that past prime ministers had made a pilgrimage to Berlin a pressing priority on taking office. One, the Süddeutsche Zeitung, even ran a piece under the headline ‘Berlin waits for Sunak in vain’ last June.
While Scholz will undoubtedly welcome the opportunity for a day of uninterrupted facetime with Sunak, London and Berlin will both be hoping that bruised egos don’t get in the way of productive conversation.
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