An ICM/Guardian poll suggests that 58 percent of those likely to vote will back the No campaign. The Guardian reports:
‘Three-quarters of Conservatives are planning to vote will vote against, as will a small majority of Labour supporters. Only Lib Dem voters are firmly in favour, with more than two-thirds saying they will vote for the change.
The Yes camp could still turn things around by winning over the 23% who say they do not know how they will vote, but this includes many people who say they may not turn out at all.
Young people are more than twice as likely to favour AV as pensioners, but pensioners are more than twice as likely to vote as the young. Increasing youth turnout could determine the outcome.’
It’s just one poll, but a 16 point margin is telling at this stage of the race. Expect the No campaign, whose tactics have been effective rather than tasteful, to press this advantage in the coming days. The poll also put Labour’s lead at 2 points on 37 percent, with the Liberal Democrats gaining ground to 15 percent.
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