When Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney gave his New Year’s address in Edinburgh University’s Old College on Monday, the idea was to put pressure on Holyrood’s opposition parties ahead of the culmination of the budget process over the next month-or-so. ‘Vote for the Scottish budget or the health service suffers’ was the general gist. Yet the briefings that appeared in that morning’s newspapers included a line that ensured the media focus was largely elsewhere. Voting against the budget would ‘feed the forces of anti-politics and populism’. Who did he mean, the media in attendance asked? Can he be clear he’s talking about Elon Musk? And does he think Musk will try to interfere with the Scottish election next year?
Musk isn’t the only outspoken American the Scottish political lot have been concerning themselves with lately. In a funny coincidence, around the time Swinney was being asked how to deal with Musk, Patrick Harvie – the leader of the Scottish Greens, the SNP’s former coalition partners – was busy making demands about president-elect Donald Trump. The Scottish Green MSP has called for a boycott of any presidential visit to Scotland later this year – blasting the Republican as ‘racist, climate-wrecking and misogynistic’ – and been labelled an ’embarrassment’ in response by a Trump aide.
There is no good reason for Scotland’s First Minister to avoid meeting with Trump – soon to be the leader of the world’s most important democracy.
Nonetheless, whether in dealing with Trump or with Musk, the question is essentially the same: to engage or not to engage? And the answer must be the same. You have no choice – as First Minister of Scotland you must act in the interests of Scotland. If Swinney has the chance to build a relationship with the leader of the free world and the world’s richest man, he must squeeze every ounce of it.
Trump and Musk have much in common. Neither is particularly well-read. Neither has ever encountered much in the way of hardship or acquired much understanding of the life of a normal person. They have a questionable radar for geopolitics, to put it mildly. Both, however, have a stroke of genius about them which has led each to the top of politics and the top of the business world respectively.
That doesn’t mean we have to like either of them particularly much. Of course, some of us might rather that the sensational-yet-affordable Tesla Model Y, and Starlink – the godsend to rural communities across the country – and of course Twitter were owned by someone else. But they’re not. And of course, we might rather that if we were to have a half-Scottish US President who owned two fabulous golf estates and enjoyed a very clear affinity with his roots, then it wouldn’t be someone who was also impeached for inciting an insurrection. But it is.
Global politics is complicated and, if you want to play with the big boys then you have to be able to exercise flexibility and nuance. This is hardly unusual. Swinney met Ambassador Zheng Zeguang of China in the summer. His predecessor Humza Yousaf met Recip Tayep Erdogan of Turkey. There is then no good reason for Scotland’s First Minister to avoid meeting with Trump – soon to be the leader of the world’s most important democracy.
America is a critical partner for Scotland, and represents an almost unique opportunity for growth and investment. It is one of the largest markets for our main drink export, whisky, and our main food export, salmon. It is the source of massive tourism, not least by visitors to our golf courses, often outwith Scotland’s central belt in areas which need the money. And it remains a key source for much of the private capital Scotland needs to drive any sort of meaningful economic growth through the rest of this decade.
John Swinney’s speech on Monday conveyed the main impression he has sought to convey since he took over nine months ago: he is more serious than his predecessors, and that is why he will inevitably play the game with Donald Trump. Previous nationalist leaders might have been a little more worried about agitating their pro-indy chums – but Swinney’s eyes are wide open to the damage that SNP’s romance with the Greens did to his party and indeed his country. He will be unworried about upsetting Harvie. Indeed, he may find it rather helpful to do so.
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