Swinney stages reshuffle amid SNP infighting

It’s a busy day in politics and the SNP is keen not to be left out of the action. As Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveils her spending review in London, today the Scottish Cabinet has undergone a reshuffle. The looming return of ex-net zero secretary Mairi McAllan from maternity leave had in recent weeks sparked speculation about how First Minister John Swinney would reorganise his top team, and his party’s rather dismal result in last week’s Hamilton by-election has led to much frustration – public and private – about the strategy deployed by the SNP government. Swinney’s reshuffle today may be modest, but the First Minister has, with 11 months to go (and barring any major upsets), created the cabinet to lead the SNP into the 2026 Holyrood election. 

What has Swinney changed? McAllan has returned in a new role, as housing secretary, while a new drugs and alcohol policy minister has been appointed following the death of Christina McKelvie – which prompted the Hamilton by-election. Now former social care minister Maree Todd will take on the portfolio – just as new figures this week reveal that drug deaths in Scotland have soared by a third since the opening of the SNP’s drug consumption facility. Tom Arthur has become social care minister, previously holding the employment and investment post. His previous duties will be split between Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, who has the economy portfolio, and Richard Lochhead, who has become minister for business and employment. Today’s changes bring the Scottish Cabinet total to 12 MSPs – just 25 per cent of whom are men – while the ministerial team has reduced to 11. 

Meanwhile ex-housing minister Paul McLennan has left government after his role was developed into a cabinet post. His departure comes after today’s Daily Mail story that highlights his public attack on the SNP leadership after the party’s disappointing result in the Hamilton by-election. The nationalists placed second, just 500 votes ahead of Reform. While it was always set to be a close contest, pollsters generally predicted that the SNP would just clinch victory ahead of Anas Sarwar’s Labour party – and many within the party blame Swinney’s ‘SNP vs Reform’ framing. ‘If you’re going into an election, it is about giving people reasons to vote for the SNP, not against Reform,’ McLennan noted critically. ‘Was it a slightly negative campaign? Possibly. Was there a mixed message? People might have seen it that way.’ Meanwhile SNP MP Seamus Logan wrote in the National that the result is ‘a reminder if any were needed that while it was necessary for the party to “steady the ship”, this is insufficient in and of itself to bring the electoral success necessary to advance independence politically.’

It’s not just Logan and McLennan. Others have concluded that the party’s underwhelming result proves the nationalist need to incorporate a stronger independence message into their campaign ahead of next year’s Scottish parliament elections. As reported by the Herald, a ‘secret’ summit of SNP insiders have even gathered to plot to remove Swinney from the top job. The 25 in attendance agreed that the First Minister had a fortnight to come up with a new independence strategy or he could face a leadership contest at the SNP’s conference this October. While there are a number of nationalist politicians who are known to have the appetite for the top job, each comes from a slightly different faction of the group. And whether parachuting in yet another unelected SNP leader less than a year before the next Holyrood election will make the party more competitive in next year’s polls is not quite evident. 

Swinney’s reshuffle today doesn’t mark any real change in direction for the SNP leader ahead of the 2026 poll. But after last week’s by-election, party strategists are considering how best to proceed over the next 12 months. The First Minister’s strategy of keeping his head below the parapet and keeping schtum on independence has managed to stabilise the SNP ship, and following the tumultuous leadership of Humza Yousaf, the party is making a recovery in the polls. But while the SNP is polling at around 30 per cent and on track to become the largest party in Holyrood next year, the nationalists are still far from winning a majority. As Hamilton’s result last week showed, they wouldn’t be wise to assume they’re immune to the threat of Reform.