John Connolly John Connolly

Ten bellwether seats to watch on election night

It’s easy to imagine prime ministers on election night, either nervously grinning or groaning in despair when the results for Dartford are announced. In every election since 1964, the London constituency has voted for the party which went on to win nationwide. It, along with nine other constituencies (such as Watford, Reading West and Worcester) are the true bellwether seats, which have predicted the national mood since the 1980s.

This election though, it’s harder to know if these seats will accurately reflect the final election result. Boris Johnson’s Tories are hoping to flip the electoral map, abandoning their old heartlands and affluent Remainers in favour of Northern and Midland Labour strongholds which voted Leave in 2016. Last night’s YouGov MRP analysis of the polls, which suggested we could be in hung parliament territory, showed that these ‘Red Wall’ seats are no longer trinkets for the Conservatives, but essential to their success – if the Tories want a majority, they will have to make inroads in seats that have been Labour’s for decades.

So, if the electoral map has changed, what will be the bellwether seats of the 2019 election? Here are Coffee House’s pick of the seats that may give an indication of the final result on election night:

Workington

Incumbent: Labour
Majority: 3,925
Expected time to declare: 1am

Ever since the think tank Onward coined the term ‘Workington man’ to describe the kind of older, Leave voting man who might switch his vote from Labour to the Tories, this Cumbrian constituency has reluctantly become the focus of the election campaign. Workington has voted Labour for decades, but after 61 per cent of its residents backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum, it is considered exactly the kind of seat the Tories will have to win over in the North if it wants to break the ‘Red Wall’. The polls currently have Workington on a knife-edge, with the latest YouGov MRP polling analysis suggesting it currently leans Labour.

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