Rumours abound that General David Petraeus will leave his post as commander of NATO
forces in Afghanistan. Early editions of The Times quoted Pentagon press secretary Geoff
Morrell saying that “General Petraeus is doing a brilliant job but he’s been going virtually non-stop since 9/11 [and] he can’t do it forever”. According to The Times,
President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates are searching for a replacement. And, says the newspaper, there has apparently even been talk of Petraeus succeeding Gates as Defense
Secretary.
Really? I find it extremely unlikely that President Obama, who has had a testy relationship with the military, including Petraeus, would promote the Army officer to Defence Secretary, and waive regulations barring ex-officers from holding the post. Inside the administration, CIA chief Leon Panetta is the only real option, with outsiders like Colin Powell, Richard Danzig, and Chuck Hagel likely to make the list.
For the same reason, the White House would not want General Petraeus to be Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, a post more likely to go to General James E. Cartwright, the Commandant of the Marine Corps. But as I think it is likely that Admiral James G. Stavridis, the Supreme Allied Commander, will be offered the job of Chief of Naval Operations, an opening in NATO will emerge.
With the Army chief job also taken, General Petraeus could go to NATO. But he is unlikely to want to. The job would be a climb-down and if he wants a post-military career, as a writer and speech-giver, then it’s much better to let the Kabul job be his last one. As to politics, I just don’t see it: General Petraeus is a brilliant man, but he is no retail politician and I am not sure he has strongly-held views on the things that make or break nominations – i.e. on abortion, healthcare, the Supreme Court etc. I could be wrong, but don’t see him doing as well as people assume in hustings.
The most intriguing question, however, is why the Pentagon would float the story now – the Obama administration is far better off keeping General Petraeus in Kabul. If he leaves, they will turn an internal policy debate into an external one – and, if the situation falters after his departure, the White House will be blamed. The only two people who could feasibly shield them from criticism are General James Mattis, the CENTCOM commander, and General Ray Odierno, who succeeded Petraeus in Iraq. It is hard to imagine President Obama and Defense Secretary Gates discussing other names.
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