John Baron and Conservative backbench colleagues have been out and about insisting that today’s results underline the need for legislation in this parliament for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU after 2015. But Tories and Lib Dems in Number 10 were clear yesterday that this can’t come as a government bill because of the realities of Coalition. But there will be a bill that comes forward. And it looks like it will cause its own almighty row.
Those around the Prime Minister have been dropping pretty hefty hints to Tory MPs that though there won’t be a government-sponsored bill, if there is ‘any other way’ of bringing legislation before the Commons, they would be sympathetic. There are two routes by which this can happen.
The first is the private member’s bill ballot, which is what Baron is now aiming for. He tells me:
‘If we were lucky in the private member’s bill ballot, for example, and we could find a colleague who was sympathetic to the cause who was well up on the list then I think the government would find it very difficult not to support it.
‘If the government didn’t give a bill like this time I think you would find that a lot of us would not find that acceptable. We could talk to the Prime Minister directly and say, look, surely even you now should be taking this seriously.’
If the private member’s bill ballot doesn’t work, though, other Tory MPs tell me that a week later they will have the opportunity to present new bills in the Chamber. ‘Those bills will get a hearing, and then of course it will be up to the government whether it blocks it or succeeds. You don’t have to be in the ballot,’ says one MP. This plan apparently involves a great deal of persistence in order to get the bills tabled, rather akin to tennis fans camping outside Wimbledon for tickets.
The problem is, as Kiran Stacey points out on the FT blog, that Number 10 is still giving Tory MPs very high expectations. They don’t just want to bring a bill that falls at the first hurdle and gets no time: they want a bill that goes to a vote so that they can then tell voters that the Lib Dems and Labour don’t really want to give the electorate a say over the European Union. Which means the government needs to give it time in the Commons. Which in turn means Cameron will still have to square up to Clegg, and then we could see all sorts of pet projects appearing in the Commons from backbenchers who expect their leaders to grant their legislation time as well (note the Lib Dem response yesterday warning about 50p tax and mansion tax votes). Baron and colleagues are growing increasingly frustrated with Cameron. He adds:
‘We as a group have been pressing the Prime Minister on this issue since the summer of last year. We were pleased about the referendum pledge, but the commitment now has to be made believable. It is a shame he has not listened about this, but perhaps the election results will focus his mind.’
The hefty hints about a backbench-led bill not being unhelpful mean MPs expect that newly focused mind to include their legislation getting a hearing in the Commons. It’s difficult to see how this won’t cause yet another stand-off between them and the leadership when it transpires that this is impossible.
P.S. What is not impossible, however, is that this row descends into calls for the PM to break things off with the Lib Dems. One Tory MP said to me with a twinkle in their eye this week that ‘wouldn’t it be great if this was the thing that ended the Coalition?’ The Lib Dems laughed this idea off when I put it to them, but that doesn’t mean Cameron won’t hear it a few times in the next few months.
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