There have been few harsher—or more prescient—critics of Gordon Brown than John Rentoul. Today, Rentoul again predicts that Brown will be forced out by the Cabinet before the next election but what is new is who Rentoul thinks is coming up fast, James Purnell.
Rentoul writes:
“That the opinion polls are so tilted against the Government on the basis of Cameron’s offer of fresh faces and an easy manner rather than policy substance ought to give courage to Brown’s enemies – those are the ones on the bench next to him. I suspect that Brown will be forced out by a self-interested Cabinet rebellion by this time next year. David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, would probably beat Ed Balls, the Children’s Secretary, in a leadership election. (Harriet Harman withdrew from the contest with her curious comment, as she stood in for Brown last week, about men leaving the country should she become prime minister.)
But the longer the Cabinet putsch is delayed, the better the prospects of James Purnell, the relaxed (and witty) Work and Pensions Secretary. Purnell is working on those precisely those difficult issues of social exclusion that are central to the Cameron-Osborne critique of Labour’s shortcomings. And Purnell, I am told, impresses his selectorate by being the only Cabinet minister to hold a regular surgery for MPs at the Commons to discuss welfare issues from their constituencies.” As Fraser wrote in his Purnell cover, David Miliband’s failure to stand against Brown last year means that he is longer regarded as the undisputed Blairite champion. Today, Blairites say that Miliband has grasped the consequences of Brown leading Labour to a catastrophic defeat—a significant lurch to the left in the party which will make it almost impossible for a Blairite to win in the ensuing leadership contest—but still believes that he has to wait for others to act. All the time, Purnell’s stock is rising. He is one of the few Cabinet members who is still actually driving an agenda forward. But I still think it is too much of a stretch to think of him as Prime Minister.
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