The Brexit backlash

One of the oddities of this parliament has been that, despite everything, the government has remained ahead in the polls up to now. But the political price of failing to pass a deal and leave the EU is now becoming apparent. Labour is ahead, Nigel Farage is back, and the right is split again. In the past month, Tory support among Leave voters has fallen by 20 per cent.

In normal circumstances, such numbers would extinguish any hopes of a fourth term for the Tories. But Labour’s own divisions over Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn’s political weaknesses mean that this isn’t necessarily the case.

A big argument is taking place within the Tory party about the correct response to the situation. One camp argues that the party needs to define itself more clearly on Brexit to win back Leave voters.  The alternative view is that the Tories must concentrate on their traditional electoral coalition. Proponents of this view point out that the Tories won a majority in 2015 despite Ukip polling 13 per cent of the vote, and that a third of the Tory vote in 2017 came from Remainers.

The coming Tory leadership contest is going to turn into a debate between these two camps. Former party chairman and chief whip Sir Patrick McLoughlin is already warning that it would be electoral suicide for the Tories to change themselves into the Vote Leave party.

Much of the electoral calculation will turn on what Labour does next. If Britain is still in the European Union in September when Labour party conference begins, it is likely that a second referendum will become party policy. It would then become far easier for the Tories to accuse Labour of trying to block Brexit. But Corbyn is unenthusiastic about a second referendum, so may choose to do a deal with Theresa May to try and get a withdrawal agreement through the Commons before then.