Drive around Glasgow East and it seems the SNP is making most of the headway. Its simple yellow fluorescent logo is everywhere. When I was in the constituency yesterday, I saw the same SNP van in four different parts of the seat– blasting out music and with “on your side” written in big letters on the side of it. There’s no doubt about it, the Nationalists are making their presence felt. Their message is: “You’ve voted Labour for decades – and what has it got you?” This resonates.
The Nats have a head start. It is a delicious irony that Gordon Brown called the Glasgow East by-election early so as to catch the SNP unawares. Yet it is his own party that has run around clueless, trying to find a candidate and being knocked back by four. Labour finally got Margaret Curran—already MSP for Glasgow Ballieston (an overlapping, but different, Holyrood constituency)—to stand. She would represent two seats in two parliaments – what they vainly call a “dual mandate”.
Now, I won’t denounce her for this, as I personally think every Scottish MP should do precisely this jobshare – two days in Westminster and two in Holyrood and one in the constituency. We’d all save a lot of money that way, even though it would mean letting those 129 idle MSPs loose on the streets. Agonisingly for the SNP, it can’t denounce Curran as Alex Salmond did not stand down from his Westminster seat when he rejoined the Scottish Parliament. He’ll be regretting this now, as it denies the SNP a potent attack line: Curran wants two jobs when half her would-be constituents don’t have any jobs.
It is easy to confuse Scottish Labour with the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) around there – both campaign using red and yellow colours, and both candidates have the surname Curran. I passed one of the SSP stalls, where Frances Curran was taking questions. Scottish Labour seemed nowhere to be seen – but, to be fair, it had only just launched its campaign.
It’s easy to forget that the SSP is not Tommy Sheridan’s lot. He has split off and set up his own splinter party – naming it “solidarity” without a hint of irony. And anyway, he’s not standing.
As for the Tories – well. When you see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist posters appear it is a sign that you’re approaching a posh neighbourhood. There are some stunning houses just off the motorway in Glasgow East, which must make an ideal commuter base. It looks like the Tories are going after just a handful of votes.
Like Ben Brogan, I suspect Labour will retain this seat – losing a 13,507 majority is beyond even Gordon Brown. It’s almost twice the majority in Crewe which was itself a very tall order. But Brown’s premiership is one long limbo dance – just when you think he cant get any lower, he surprises everyone. He has lost the seat where he lives (Dunfermline & West Fife 2006 by-election), his motherland (Scottish Parliament 2007 elections), the city he works in (the BoJo revolution, 2008) and all that’s missing is a defeat in the city of his birth, Glasgow. We have two more weeks to wait.
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