For all the giddiness at Conservative conference last week, and the implosion of the Labour party since 4 July, the Tory party is in a bad way. Reform is in the ascendent, and the Tories are still polling below Labour.
Given the circumstances, I am surprised that Conservative MPs are making such a meal of this leadership contest.
She is the most consistent candidate, the most coherent candidate, the most courageous candidate
Perhaps I shouldn’t be. These are, after all, the people who gave members a choice between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in 2022. I thought Tory MPs should back Kemi Badenoch then, and I think they should back her now as they whittle down the number of leadership contenders to two.
For a start, there is her presentational appeal. After many years grubbing around the foothills of the entertainment business, I flatter myself that I have some idea of who looks good on a camera, who draws the eye, who speaks engagingly in public. Here, Badenoch is so superior to the other candidates – an area where, frankly, you’ve either got it or you haven’t – that this alone should seal the deal.
Picture her stood against the other leadership candidates: who are you drawn to? Now imagine her lined up against Sir Keir Starmer or Sir Ed Davey or Nigel Farage. Again, who catches your attention? Understanding the importance of these presentational advantages isn’t difficult but, for a rump Tory party grappling with an existential crisis, it is key. It is the difference between grumpy voters giving the party another look, or simply waving it away.
Of course, star quality, whilst essential, is not enough. Happily, Badenoch also offers the intellectual rigour needed to dig the Conservatives out of the mud. Unlike other candidates, Badenoch refuses to deal in either saloon bar right-wingery, or tickle-on-the-tummy bromides.
She has offered clarity, where others have preferred to dissemble, on cultural issues. A robust line is certainly needed. C. P. Snow spoke of the ‘two cultures’: the sciences and the humanities, and their combined importance to the West’s foundation. We are going through a crisis of cultural confidence. To reconnect with reality, it makes sense to send for an engineer to fix the country’s issues.
On crucial economic questions, Badenoch has made her philosophy equally clear – though she has wisely avoided knee-jerk commitments that might create problems in two, three or four years’ time. In her launch speech she said, ‘government should do less, but those things it does, it should do brilliantly.’ What better summation of the direction in which a successful Conservative party must travel?
There is, of course, a certain type of Tory activist who values pats on the head from ‘senior figures’ more than electoral success. For these (often rather nice) sorts, James Cleverly remains the favourite – he’ll even pretend he remembers them, and be delighted to host their association tombola.
Other members have become so obdurate, so studiedly unpleasant, they get a perverse kick out of being hated. For this tribe, Robert Jenrick (with his awful, Trump-inspired ‘Bobby J’ baseball caps) is the perfect ‘nobody likes us and we don’t care’ option.
But there are lots of people, in the Tory party and outside it, who think the Conservatives should reject both these comfort zones and try to rise to the challenge of Opposition.
For Tories serious about making their party competitive again, the case for Kemi Badenoch is now overwhelming.
She has the most support amongst Tory members. She is the most consistent candidate, the most coherent candidate, the most courageous candidate – and the most intimidating candidate for Labour.
Further, she is so much more popular amongst the membership that blocking her this week would immediately inject a great big dose of venom into an organisation that desperately needs to stop fighting itself. In short, the case for Kemi is a no brainer.
Which brings me back to the Conservative Parliamentary party. We are told – or, rather, they tell us – they are ‘the most sophisticated electorate in the world’. This, I think, is open to dispute. The decision before them this week doesn’t require sophistication, just a little humility, and a little common sense. Perhaps then, they really are doomed.
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