The change we need?

In September 2016, the Labour party reached a turning point but then failed to turn. The re-election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader with an increased majority, despite the opposition of two thirds of his own MPs, seemed to make a split inevitable. But it wasn’t until this week that Labour MPs found the nerve to leave the party and begin to form a new one: the Independent Group.

Chuka Umunna, Luciana Berger, Chris Leslie, Mike Gapes, Angela Smith, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey all quit citing various aspects of Corbyn’s leadership as their reason for going. Then on Tuesday night, Joan Ryan followed suit. On Wednesday morning, three Tory MPs — Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen — joined them. The rebels want to realign British politics, challenge Brexit and stop Corbyn from becoming prime minister. Their success or failure will go a long way to determining the future of this country.

The first thing to say about this split is that it is not a rupture. This is far from the unilateral declaration of independence by the Parliamentary Labour Party that was talked about in the early days of Corbyn’s leadership. Instead, it is a breakaway made up of less than 4 per cent of all Labour MPs and three Remainer Tories.

But it is now much simpler to set up a new political party than it was in the 1980s. The success of Vote Leave shows how technology can help a political movement to get going. The biggest problem for this group, though, may well be that it defines the centre ground as being economically and socially liberal while the electorate’s view is very different. Voters are often more socially conservative and more heterodox in their views on the economy. The danger for the group is that it tries to party like it’s 1999, when voters have other ideas.