The news came on Wednesday that Scotland’s former first minister will not seek election to the Scottish Parliament for the first time since it was reconvened in 1999. Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement that she will stand down at the 2026 Holyrood election marks the end of an era for the most electorally dominant UK party leader since Tony Blair.
If her predecessor won Holyrood elections and precipitated a referendum he was never expected to win, Sturgeon undeniably brought sustained electoral success. At the same time, the former FM was having to react to events outwith her control – like Brexit – by marshalling the SNP coalition into a more durable one that could deliver sustained support for independence. Her towering achievement will be making it too risky for the UK government to allow another referendum, and thereby scorching the moderate unionist myth that the UK is a voluntary union.
As we approach the 10th anniversary of the historic 2015 general election victory that brought Sturgeon to the centre of UK politics, it can be tempting to assume that because many of the faces in the party are the same that nothing has changed. Yet it’s hard to overstate what a political earthquake that first UK victory was. My own example is as good as any: I sought the nomination in late 2014 for a seat that had never been won by the SNP and in which Labour had a 12,500 majority. In the rest of Glasgow, the party had never won a seat at a general election. Yet that night in May 2015, it won every seat in the city – including mine, where I achieved a scarcely believable majority of 12,269.
While many Labour figures would try to write it off as a freak result following the referendum, the numbers involved were jaw dropping: 50 per cent of all votes cast were for the SNP, in a greatly increased turnout of 71 per cent – the sort of dominance thought impossible in the modern era. Scottish Labour were only spared the ignominy of a complete wipeout by the combination of a scandal involving a twitter account called ‘Paco McSheepie’ and tactical voting from the decidedly non-red voters of douce Edinburgh South.
It wasn’t all plain sailing for Sturgeon’s SNP though: there was a partial reversal of these results in the 2017 election and opponents tasted blood in the water. Yet Scotland’s most ardent supporters of the Union continued to be let down by their comrades at Westminster, with Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour and Boris Johnson’s Tories being the perfect foil for an electoral operator like Sturgeon. By 2019 the party was back to 48 seats and 45 per cent of the vote.
Commentators fulminated about Scotland being a one-party state and lamented the autocratic pretentious of Scotland seemingly unassailable First Minister. Never mind the stolid, cooperative reality of a Scottish parliament where the SNP must do deals with other parties to pass legislation and budgets, of course. But, on reflection, the wider Brexit debate followed by Covid and these outlandish conspiracy theories meant the party skipped some difficult institution-building questions that such a period of dominance necessitated.
2015 would surely have been the ideal time for a long-standing chief executive like Peter Murrell to stand aside. I certainly never met anyone who thought it a particularly good idea that he did stay on, but not only is it hard to change a winning team, the pressures of UK and Europe-wide attention that Scotland’s First Minster was attracting must have made any change that little bit harder, even if it would’ve been the smart thing to do.
My fellow nationalists can be odd creatures, especially those like Nicola who came of age during the years when we were electoral also-rans. For many, mockery and condescension has led to a hard shell that can obviate self-reflection; the internalising of an outsider mentality has bred a flinty self-reliance that has made it difficult for some to be able to properly reach out to the Scots not as ‘flag and candle’ as the party’s base. In this instance, it led to a frighteningly small circle of two who were party to all machinations during this period, with others let in only when necessary. It meant that the Chinese walls between the discrete-but-connected realms of the party and Scottish government were torn down, damaging the ability of either to operate independently when required – and a Westminster group with dozens of MPs and millions in short money was almost completely ignored.
The internalising of an outsider mentality led to a frighteningly small circle of two who were party to all of the SNP’s machinations
Had Nicola Sturgeon listened more to a loyal lieutenant in then-Westminster leader Ian Blackford, she may have better understood that there was little hope of a UK government of any stripe granting another referendum on Scottish independence when there was a risk it might well lose. Instead, it may have appeared from Scotland like the ridiculous ‘de facto referendum’ ruse remained credible. To what extent she can be blamed for the fact that the UK, unlike the EU, has no equivalent to Article 50 is moot: she had run out of constitutional road, and it would be daft to pretend otherwise.
Ultimately, Sturgeon still left office in 2023 with a positive poll rating: even if that popularity was to take a battering with all that would follow. A rushed exit meant little time for succession planning and the elevation of the much-underprepared Humza Yousaf must substantially be laid at the former First Minister’s door – as must surely the subsequent stalling of an SNP engine that had been running on fumes for far too long.
Sometimes a hard shell can come in useful though: it was Nicola’s assurance and leadership that carried the SNP through a time of turbulence in UK politics that roiled both the main UK parties, even if our fall was to come later. The restrictions of high office removed, her shell has somewhat softened recently as she has enjoyed the opportunity to let her hair down after a long career of public service.
What Sturgeon can now do is demonstrate as best she can the correct way for a former SNP first minister’s career to unfold. Her ability to demonstrate leadership to the millions of Scots who voted for her – along with the millions who didn’t – did not end with her leaving Bute House and it won’t end with her leaving Holyrood. I look forward to seeing what she does next.
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