The danger of a Labour supermajority

We are witnessing what could well be the last few weeks of a constrained Labour party. Sir Keir Starmer is saying as little as possible about his agenda and is instead listing what he won’t do (raise income tax, etc). He is rightly fearful that the Conservatives may do better than the opinion polls suggest. That has happened in the past. There may be a ‘shy Tory’ effect in the polls as there was in 1992, 2015 and 2019.

Who would admit to voting Conservative in the current climate? Regardless, power now looks certain to come Starmer’s way – perhaps with a majority bigger than that of any modern prime minister. It doesn’t much matter that he has not enthused voters with his promises. His strategy has been to hope that the Conservative campaign plays out in a series of blunders – and so far Rishi Sunak has obliged. Even Tory ministers who are knocking on doors are telling voters that Sunak will lose power and are merely suggesting that the local Conservative candidate would be good in opposition.

At first, these government ministers felt nervous – even disloyal – peddling this line of argument. But the Conservative party is starting to realise that this message is far more credible than, for example, pretending that they will be back in power, conscripting teenagers or bribing pensioners. Some Tory campaigners have started to use, as a campaign tool, a poll suggesting that the party will finish third, with Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats acting as the opposition. The idea is to ask voters: is this really what you want?

Voting Reform UK will, in the Westminster model, give Nigel Farage three MPs at most – but could turn a Starmer majority into a supermajority, with sweeping powers to do whatever it likes without any serious concern about parliamentary opposition.