Anthony Sattin

The dominoes rally

Autocrats left standing in the region now share a single overriding aim: not being the next to fall

First Tunisia, then Egypt. Whatever next? The laws of the Arab world are supposed to prohibit any domino effect: the military is supposed to be too strong, the governments too unresponsive. But these laws no longer hold now that two of North Africa’s most deeply entrenched leaders have been unsettled by popular protests. The ‘Arab street’ has suddenly become aware of the power it can wield. When President Ben Ali fled Tunisia with his wife (and perhaps some of the country’s gold reserves) alarm bells rang in palaces across the region. All over the Arab world reform is being nervously pledged. Even in Yemen, the president has promised to stand down — albeit in two years’ time. Whether the pledges are genuine, or simply a stalling tactic, the fear is palpable.

To determine whether a revolution is afoot, it is important to work out what is not happening. For example, it is not the case that outraged Arabs have just discovered that their leaders are repressive and corrupt. They — and we — have known that for years. But ever since Tunisians discovered that people power really can work, a new dynamic is at play. Egyptians are learning that they too can stand up to their leaders. The internet and mobile phones have helped the spread of information and ideas in a way that was unthinkable before. Little wonder nervous regimes have tried to restrict networks. Or that Google and Twitter have responded by launching a less easily censored service.

Another factor, as mundane as it is powerful, is the high price of basic food. One of the first instructions President Mubarak handed his new Cabinet this week was to lower food prices and maintain government subsidies. Well-fed people are less likely to demand change.

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