The end of May

This week’s European election was always going to be pointless, at least from a British perspective. It is possible that the elected candidates will never even take up their seats. In one important sense, however, the election campaign has been useful: as a reminder of where public opinion stands on Brexit.

A few weeks ago, many believed that Change UK, the party founded by Labour and Conservative dissidents spoiling for a revocation of Article 50, would capture the public mood. Instead, another new political party would appear to have triumphed — a party set up with the sole purpose of expressing anger at the failure of Parliament to effect Britain’s departure from the EU on the date which had been set into law.

The Brexit party makes a point that most Remainers would agree with: the Tory handling of Brexit has been a national humiliation. The breezily optimistic scenarios that David Davis and others set out — that a trade deal would be negotiated in a brief trip to Berlin — have been terrifyingly wrong. But the difficulty has also illustrated just how deeply ingrained EU rules are in what is often passed off as British law and British government. Many Remainers are troubled by the behaviour of Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, who have shown just how politicised and controlling the European Commission has become.

This is why, as the wreckage of Theresa May’s Brexit stands before us, the country remains still evenly split on Brexit. A recent Survation poll showed that if there were another referendum tomorrow, Remain would win 51 per cent and Leave 49 per cent. Given how much political party support shifts — as the fall in support for both Labour and the Tories demonstrates — the stubbornness of opinion on Brexit is remarkable.