So we have the first sight of the European Council’s draft negotiating guidelines. They’re much more constructive that we would have been lead to believe. And there are no big surprises.
The first headline point is that there is no mention of the €60 billion figure which Jean-Claude Juncker and the European Commission have loved to go on about. In fact no figure is mentioned at all. The section on money is restricted to saying that debts will need to be settled – something Theresa May has already acknowledged. It does not say when the cheque needs to be signed:
A single financial settlement should ensure that the Union and the United Kingdom both respect the obligations undertaken before the date of withdrawal. The settlement should cover all legal and budgetary commitments as well as liabilities, including contingent liabilities
Second, the document does not rule out parallel discussions, contra widespread reports this week. In fact, it explicitly says that discussions on future arrangements can start ‘as soon as sufficient progress’ has been made on withdrawal. It then enumerates the areas where sufficient progress will be required quickly. These are a) reciprocal guarantees on EU expats in UK, and UK expats in EU; b) addressing legal uncertainty for business; c) the financial settlement as described above; respecting the Belfast Agreement for Northern Ireland; d) an agreement on the UK’s sovereign base in Cyprus; e) UK to honour international law agreements. Of these only c) is potentially problematic for the UK Government. The others are neutral, or helpful. Theresa May is actively seeking a quick agreement on EU nationals. She wants to protect peace in Northern Ireland, and will want to agree principles for the Cyprus base.
Third, the document confirms that a ‘non-member…cannot have the same rights and enjoy the same benefits as a member’.
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