On the edges of the City of London, a couple of miles from where I grew up, there’s a very famous cemetery: Bunhill Fields. When I was growing up, it was pretty clear who the three most famous tombs belonged to: John Bunyan, Daniel Defoe and William Blake.
However, I am not sure any of these men are the most famous inhabitant any more. Instead, I think it’s Thomas Bayes.
He was quite obscure in his lifetime. He was so obscure that we’re not even sure there is a correct picture of him. In the 1st edition of the Dictionary of National Biography, his father, a non-conformist preacher, featured, but he did not.
But today his most famous work is studied in universities around the world. His name has become an adjective (‘Bayesian’). He has had a profound influence on philosophy, medicine and technology. His most famous work is not a novel or a collection of poems or a devotional allegory but an algorithm that helps you to work out what to do when faced with uncertainty.
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