How dangerous are riots to the very existence of the French state? Most commentators avoid the question and concentrate on causes. The more whimsical attribute cause to that clichéd French historical reflex of insurrection; the sociologists to poverty and discrimination in the banlieues (suburbs); the far-left to French institutional racism and right-wing policies; conservative politicians to excess immigration, the ghettoization of France and the state’s retreat from enforcing law and order. But a growing chorus now evokes an unmentionable potential consequence: civil war. Of most concern is that those voices include groups with first-hand knowledge of the state of the country: the police, the army, domestic intelligence.
On Friday, following three days of violent nation-wide rioting, arson, looting, attacks on police stations, town halls and even politicians, two of France’s police trade unions that speak for 90 per cent of the 150,000-strong force published a warning to the political class. Their communiqué declared that they ‘can no longer put up with the diktat of these violent minorities’. They called for ‘combat’ against this ‘vermin’. They demanded that ‘all means be put in place to restore immediately the rule of law’ and declared that ‘we are at war’. They went on to warn the government that they will ‘take action’ if ‘concrete measures’ are not taken to legally protect the police officer charged with the manslaughter of the Algerian youth that sparked the turmoil. The left condemned this as ‘a threat of sedition’, the head of the Greens called it ‘a call to civil war’. The interior minister studiously avoided journalists’ questions. He fears two extremes: that the police take matters into their own hands when dealing with rioters; that they collectively stand down, as they contractually have the right to do.
France is deeply unhappy with herself.
Go back two years to April 2021 and the wake of Islamic terrorism and ‘gilets jaunes’ riots. Twenty generals, a hundred mostly retired senior officers and a thousand military personnel signed a strident letter in the right-wing French weekly Valeurs actuelles addressed to the president, the government and parliamentarians. It began: ‘The hour is grave, France is in peril, several mortal dangers threaten it.’ It stated that members of the army would not stand idly by while French values were trampled by anti-racist doctrines, no-go areas and mob-rule. It appealed for ‘honour to be restored to our rulers’ and warned of ‘disintegration’ of French society as a result of government policy: ‘there is no time for prevarication, if not, tomorrow civil war will put an end to the mounting chaos, and the deaths, whose responsibility will be yours, will be counted in their thousands’. The convenor of the letter put the true number of signatories at 10,000.
This was about more than just France’s sluggish internal struggle against Islamic terrorism. It was about the mounting general violence of French society. Current French ‘values’ and the ‘laxism’ of the French political class, it claimed, would inexorably lead to ‘explosion’. Railing against ‘anti-racist’ values, whose ‘sole aim is to create on our soil ill-feeling, even hatred between communities’, it castigated the ‘banlieues mobs’ who have created no-go areas where dogma alien to France’s constitution flourishes. The letter warned that when French society does finally break down, it will be to the army that French politicians will turn to restore order and protect its citizens. An opinion poll this week showed that an overwhelming majority wish the army to intervene against the riots.
Meanwhile, according to Le Monde, French domestic intelligence fears a ‘convergence of struggles’, a coming together of banlieusards, with ultra-left movements from anti-capitalists to eco-warriors. A recent report pointed to the ‘massive presence of ultra-left groups’ helping organise rioters from the suburbs. More openly, L’Insoumission, the online newspaper of the La France Insoumise party, which has 75 MPs, expressed approval for a convergence of struggles between banlieues and other social and environmental causes. Intelligence also has evidence of the ultra-right organising to take up arms against the rioters. Then there is the fear that ordinary citizens, such as shopkeepers, take up arms to protect their property. Firearms are already circulating, and three police officers have already been wounded. As most politicians are willing to say, France is a powder keg.
At present France is experiencing low-level guerrilla warfare. But even if this subsides for now, violent explosions are becoming ever more a feature of French society in an acceleration of her history. France is deeply unhappy with herself. As long as that persists, the most frightening of scenarios will continue to be hidden in plain sight.
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