It’s the question that’s on everyone’s lips this week in Westminster: now that the Brexit negotiations have been finalised by the EU, will Theresa May be able to get her withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons?
So far, the numbers are not in her favour. Labour have confirmed they will whip against her deal, as have the SNP and other opposition parties. Meanwhile the DUP have said they will vote against the proposal – rather than just abstain. That means even if Theresa May could count on complete party loyalty in the upcoming meaningful vote, she would still be four votes short of the 320 needed for a majority.
Unfortunately for her, there are already plenty of MPs on her side unhappy with the deal and willing to rebel. Over 90 Tories have indicated that they will vote against the agreement, and only a handful of Labour and Lib Dem MPs have even suggested that they might vote for it. To have any chance of this bill passing, May either needs to convince a large number of Labour MPs to support her plan, or get her Tory rebels to change their minds.
To measure how likely it is that this will happen, we will be keeping track on Coffee House of the Conservative MPs who have said they are voting against May’s deal (those not on the list are voting for), and the opposition MPs who have said they will support it (the opposition MPs not on the list are voting against):
The Conservative MPs who have suggested they will vote againt May's deal:
Sir David Amess
Sir Christopher Chope
Iain Duncan Smith
(Arise, Sir) John Hayes
Sir Bernard Jenkin
Sir Greg Knight
Sir Edward Leigh
Sir Mike Penning
Sir Desmond Swayne
Sir Robert Syms
The opposition MPs who may support May's deal:
Caroline Flint (Lab): "if a reasonable deal is on the table, the question for my Labour colleagues is why wouldn't you support a deal?"
Kevan Jones (Lab): “I would not support no deal because that would be disastrous both for my constituents and the country.”
Stephen Lloyd (Lib Dem): "I also made a promise during the campaign that I would not support calls for a second referendum, and would support the final negotiated deal the Prime Minister brings back to the Commons."
John Mann (Lab): “At the moment no-deal is probably the most likely outcome, the idea that you can sideline and discount no-deal doesn’t seem to be very credible”
John Woodcock (Ind): "But how exactly does parliament guarantee stopping no deal when a deal requires agreement from both sides, parliament is gearing up to reject what’s currently on offer and we are scheduled to leave on 29 March 2019?"
Opposition MPs who look set to disappoint Theresa May:
Lisa Nandy had been talked up as a Labour MP who could back May's deal. However, on Sunday she said she could not – unless the future trade political declaration was changed: 'It's inconceivable now that when this comes before Parliament in just a few day's time that I'll be voting for it. I won't be voting to support the Withdrawal Agreement.'
Gareth Snell had suggested that he would vote for May's deal so that Labour did not become "the midwife to a no-deal Brexit baby" but confirmed today that "I can’t support a deal that fails to meet the expectations of the referendum."
Ruth Smeeth also confirmed that she would not support May's agreement, after indicating that she wanted to avoid no deal last week.