The government’s social care reform plans don’t add up

As Covid-19 swept through care homes in the spring of last year, the public watched on with horror and helplessness. About a third of all Covid deaths in England took place among residents of these homes. It was worse overseas. In Spain, care home residents accounted for 40 per cent of Covid deaths last year. In the Netherlands and Sweden, it was around 50 per cent. In Canada, almost 60 per cent. But this doesn’t provide much comfort. Britain may belong to a large club of countries that got their pandemic policy wrong — but the results, regardless, were deadly.

The huge holes in Britain’s social care system have been exposed. They had been expanding for decades but comprehensive reform was avoided time and time again. In the past year, though, what would normally be deemed politically impossible has been reconsidered. ‘Covid made everything possible,’ one government insider tells me. ‘That includes manifesto overhauls. The Prime Minister sees an opportunity.’

Boris Johnson is convinced he can now do what his Tory predecessors promised but failed to deliver: comprehensively reform social care. An announcement is expected in the coming weeks. It will tear up the Tory manifesto pledge to protect the public from tax rises. The reforms, which have been trailed for months, are expected to be funded by a 1p tax on National Insurance contributions to make up the costs. It’s a big U-turn. Tories who renege on their promise not to raise taxes usually struggle to be re-elected.

Even a 1p tax might not be enough. The tax haul would raise £6 billion to tackle growing NHS waiting lists and to provide social care support, but health chiefs are reported to be pushing for even more funding. Behind closed doors, the debate carries on. ‘The whole way of selling this,’ says a source close to government, ‘is to frame the tax rise in terms of the NHS — what it needs to recover post-Covid, and then set up long-term, sustainable funding for social care.’